AC Milan -1 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Pinnacle/Bet365 - 1 unit (min 1.85)

**I took 1.93

AC Milan

  • Milan are expected to line up here with a strong XI; Mike Maignan is back between the sticks, Kessie and Bennacer in the double pivot and Zlatan to start in attack.
  • Expected XI: Maignan, Florenzi, Kjaer, Romagnoli, Theo, Bennacer, Kessie, Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao, Ibrahimovic
  • Milan are coming off a 0-1 win at the Wanda Metropolitano, so confidence should be sky high coming into this match.
  • Currently, Milan sit 2nd in the table and rank 4th best in the league for xG difference per 90 (+0.57)
  • They have a nice balance between attack and defence, ranking 4th best for both xG and xGA
  • No team has a better home record than Milan this season; they have taken 2.67 points per game and conceded just 4 times.
  • When playing at home against bottom-half teams, Milan have won 8 of their last 10, scoring 21 and conceding 5 (Sassuolo 13th)

Sassuolo

  • Since picking up their shock win over Juventus, things haven't panned out very well for Sassuolo. They lost to Empoli, Udinese and drew 2-2 with 19th placed Cagliari.
  • Their chance creation has been respectable, they rank 7th in the league, but like previous seasons, they're being let down at the back. Currently, they rank in the bottom 6 for chances allowed
  • Sassuolo have taken on three other top 5 teams this season (Roma, Inter, and Atalanta). From those games, they allowed on average 2.1xGA per 90
  • The only teams they managed to truly restrict this season were Venezia, Salernitana, and Sampdoria (those are 3 of 4 worst attacks in the league)
  • Expected XI: Consigli; Toljan, Chiriches, G. Ferrari, Rogerio; Matheus Enrique, Lopez; Berardi, Raspadori, Traore; Scamacca. (Filip Đuričić and Jeremie Boga unavailable)
  • Sassuolo have conceded 2+ goals in all their road games this season bar one (vs Juventus). On average, they are allowing 1.94xGA per away game.

Final word: Sassuolo have struggled massively against top tier opposition this season, and I don't expect their luck to change here. Expect a dominant display from the Rossoneri

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