Both teams to score: No @ 1.53 - 2 units

*Posted to Telegram members @ 10.20am Monday

Andorra

  • Andorra won't deviate from their rigid 4-4-2 low block which will make creating chances against this Albania squad few and far between
  • Over the last calendar year Andorra have averaged 0.25 goals and xG per 90 mins despite most of these games coming against other weak opponents in the UNL (Malta, Latvia, Faroe's)
  • Over the last year they've scored just once, that came in the form of a free kick into the box that wasn't cleared via Malta
  • Andorra have averaged 0.87 shots on target per game from these matches.
  • Going back to their last qualification campaign we see similar numbers again, 0.3 goals per 90 / 0.32xG per 90, and 0.99 shots on target per 90
  • Andorra played out a 2-2 with Albania in the Euro qualifiers last time out, I'm not putting a lot of weight into that result though. Albania couldn't qualify so it was a rather meaningless game and still dominated for the most part.

Albania

  • Albania have talent in defence and have two decent (for this level) GK's in Berisha and Strakosha
  • Edoardo Reja prefers a rigid 5-3-2 but make play a 4-3-3 considering the opponent. He played a 4-3-3 the last time this fixture was played and won 3-0 restricting Andorra to 0 attempts on target
  • Over the last calendar year we've seen Albania concede just 0.71 goals per 90 with 0.7xGA
  • In their last qualification campaign they also had respectable xGA numbers with just 1.1xGA per 90 despite coming against France, Turkey, and Iceland.
  • Albania are fairly strong when it comes to not conceding from set-pieces/headed shots (this is the main danger area for Andorra)
  • In the UNL they didn't concede a single headed goal or a goal from a set piece. Also in their last qualification campaign they conceded just once from a headed shot and that came against France.
  • Their backline is generally quite tall and capable in the air, so it makes sense.

Final word: Andorra are going to see very little of the ball, scoring from a set-piece could happen but at these prices this is an automatic bet for me.