Atalanta disappointed away from home against Verona at the weekend but they still did well in the attacking 3rd considering the opponent (1.87xG and 21 attempts on goal) Here they will have a far more favourable opponent.
- The Top 4 places are not 100% guaranteed for Serie A next season and even with the title almost certainly out of reach, Atalanta will still want the strongest possible finish to the league.
- Despite getting some decent results Bologna have only managed to generate more than 1.00xG in one match since the restart. That one match came against Sampdoria when they generated a meagre 1.14xG from open play. With that in mind I'm not sure I even fancy Bologna to score here.
- Atalanta’s goalscoring record (especially at home) is truly otherworldly. They have found the net 50 times in 17 home games (2.94 goals per game)
- When playing teams in the middle third (Bologna 10th) this average increases to 3.4 goals for and 0.9 goals against.
- Outside of the relegation candidates, Bologna are one of the weaker teams on the road with 1.82 conceded on average
- Since the restart we’ve only seen Bologna travel to two Top 6 sides (Milan and Inter) Despite getting a result against Inter the underlying data is worrying. Taking an average from both games we can see Bologna allowing an xGA of 3.28 per 90, while allowing 19.5 shots on their goal.
Verdict: I don’t expect heavy rotation for Gasperini. Gazzetta dello Sport predicted XI below (quite reliable)
On the Bologna front I've even heard that Gabriele Corbo (CB) might even be risked (Age 19 - played 32 mins this season) - If that is the case Bologna will be even weaker at the back. Corbo has played twice this season and in both games Bologna conceded 4 or more goals.
Atalanta -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.81 with Marathonbet- 2 units (minimum odds 1.72)