• Intensity should drop for Atalanta; firstly their chance to catch Juventus is gone. secondly they also tend to switch off against lesser opponents
  • Looking at their last ten against 'Bottom 6' opponents, we see them only managing six wins and conceded 1.2 goals per game.
  • If we filter this to their last 10 against teams just in the bottom half we see similar numbers with only 6 wins and 1.2 goals conceded per game
  • Atalanta also won't be at their best tonight. Early reports seem to indicate Remo Freuler and Robin Gosens not starting for Atalanta with starts being handed to Tameze and Castagne. Papu Gomez is also expected to be rested
  • Of players with 2000+ mins none are more critical than Goosens, with him on the field Atalanta only allow 1.05xGA and 1.23 goals per game (best of all defensive/midfield players)
  • Brescia's manager believes in salvation despite the 99% probability of relegation; he'll set his team out to win here and won't play with 10 men behind the ball
  • When these two last played Atalanta won 3-0 but Brescia created 1.21 xG which includes to relatively big chances in Atalanta's box.
  • Brescia are expected to be full strength with Torregrossa, Donnarumma, and Tonali all expected to start
  • Since the restart, Brescia have scored generated a very respectable  1.24xG per 90. The 6-0 loss to Inter was the only match when they really played a stinker (0 shots on target and 0.37xG)
  • Despite their league position, Brescia are not that bad at creating chances. Parma, Torino, and Udinese who are all above them in the table have created fewer opportunities this season.
  • If we're looking purely at npxG (non-penalty expected goals) we see that Brescia are more a mid-tier side when it comes to creating chances from open play. (Parma, Cagliari, Samp, Lecce, Torino, and SPAL are all worse)
Both teams to score: Yes at 1.95 - 1.5 units (posted at 10.11am in Telegram group) - Don't bet below 1.85