Juventus +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.62 with Pinnacle - 2.5 units (min odds 1.57)

Atalanta

  • Atalanta will be without their best CB for this game as well as their starting RWB Hateboer. Palomino will step in for Romero.
  • Overall Atalanta's goals against per 90 and xGA per 90 increases with Palomino on the pitch. The same is true for Hateboer over his stand in Maehle
  • Expected XI: Gollini, Maehle, Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti, Gosens, de Roon, Freuler, Pessina, Malinovskiy, Zapata
  • These two played out a 1-1 back in December and Juve dominated the game putting up 2.71xG to Atalanta's 0.9
  • Last season Juve had no issues putting up healthy xG numbers over the two meetings too (average xG 1.8 with a total of 5 goals scored )
  • In their last 10 against top 6 opponents Atalanta have only won 4 times and have conceded 1.4 goals a game
  • Most recently we saw Atalanta lose 2-0 to Inter, draw 1-1 with Milan, draw 2-2 with Juventus, and beat Napoli 2-1. From these games Atalanta's average xG was a meagre 1.31 per 90
  • With Juventus putting up the best xGA numbers in the league chance creation could be a problem

Juventus

  • Juventus who are not guaranteed top 4 need a big performance here and will be boosted by their squad news. They have no automatic starters suspended or injured
  • Ronaldo, Morata, Chiesa, Cuadrado and Kuluseveski are Juve's best goal contributors this season and all are in line to start
  • They are expected to line up as follows: Szczęsny, Cuadrado, de Ligt, Chiellini, Danilo, Kuluseveski, Bentancur, Rabiot, Ronaldo, Morata
  • Juve's recent record against top 6 is better than Atalanta, they are W 6 D1 L3 in their last 10 with 17 scored and 12 conceded
  • Most recently we've seen them beat Napoli 2-1, beat Lazio 3-1, lose to Napoli (1.91xG for) draw with Inter, beat Roma 2-0 and beat Inter 2-1 (Coppa Italia)
  • In terms of goals against and xGA this season, Juve have improved a lot on last season. Under Sarri they allowed 1.38xGA per 90 while under Pirlo just 1.1 with 0.9 goals against
  • Juve have had a few surprising loses in Serie A this season, but based on performances and circumstances the only match they were truly dominated in was the 2-0 loss to Inter.

Final word: Juve can win this game but we'll err on the side of caution and take them to avoid defeat. A draw isn't a terrible result for either side.