Under 2.5 Total Goals at 1.9 with Pinnacle - (min 1.83) - 1 unit

Atletico Madrid

  • This price looks to have a slight recency bias cooked into the price. Yes, Barca were appalling mid-week against Benfica but let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
  • Games between Atletico Madrid and the Top 6 are traditionally very low scoring; in their last 10 they have scored just 1.3 per game while conceding 0.5
  • Atletico have played just one team with comparable chance creation numbers to Barcelona; that match came against Bilbao (0-0 with 1.8 total xG)
  • Both meetings with Barca last season were ugly low scoring games, 1 goal scored with an average total xG of 1.8
  • At the Wanda Metropolitano Atletico have allowed just 0.57 goals against per 90 mins over the last calendar year (LaLiga)
  • Atletico's team news is positive; no automatic starters are out.
  • Since the start of the season, Atletico have not conceded an xG total that has exceeded 0.78; this is a remarkably consistent achievement.
  • Overall, Atletico Madrid's per 90 goal scoring rate and xG rate have dropped since last season.
  • In 20/21 they were scoring 1.61 with 1.45xG per 90, this season, that has dropped to 1.22 goals and 1.22xG

Barcelona

  • Barcelona are in full-blown crisis mode now, and it should be a foregone conclusion that Koeman gets sacked once a replacement is found.
  • Mid-week they failed to hit a shot on target as they generated just 0.77xG
  • Barca's attacking output has fallen off a cliff with Messi leaving; this season they are generating 1.38 goals with 1.38xG across both Europe and LaLiga.
  • Last year they were poor but still generated 2.24 goals and 2.23xG per 90. Their shot count is down from 15.35 to 10.13 too
  • Expected XI: Ter Stegen, Dest, Pique, Araujo/Garcia, Alba, Busquets, De Jong, Gavi, Coutinho, Memphis, De Jong.
  • Like Atletico Madrid, Barca have been decent at restricting opposition chances; so far this season, they are conceding 0.83 per 90 with 1.05xGA.

Final word: I don't expect Atletico to deviate from their regular game; they won't look for a 2nd goal if they take the lead. Expect chances to come at a premium in this game.