Over 0.5 Celta Vigo Goals at 1.84 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min odds 1.78)

Atletico Madrid

  • Atletico's team news isn't as good as they would have wanted, Tripper is still suspended, Felix, Vrsaljko are injured and new signing Dembele is out. Hermoso and Carrasco are also doubts.
  • Atleti are expected to line up once against with Marcos Llorente and Saúl Ñíguez on the flanks (in a 5-3-2)
  • This will likely be the exact same XI (minus Felix) that we saw in the 4-2 with Cadiz last time out
  • Atleti gave up 1.31xGA (all from open play) and 9 attempts on their goal from one of the weakest attacks (Cadiz rank 4th worst for xG) in the league in that game.
  • As we mentioned a few weeks ago Atletico are outperforming their xGA in a big way this season. Although that's nothing strange for Atleti, this season the levels do look unsustainable especially with their problems at FB.

Celta Vigo

  • Celta are top tier for chance creation this season (6th) and have a fully fit squad coming into this away game.
  • So far this season we've seen Celta score 24 and generate 27.9xG
  • Just looking at open play (non-penalty xG) they rank 5th best in the league for chance creation with very similar open play numbers to Villarreal and Sevilla.
  • When these sides met earlier in the season Celta lost 0-2 but have a lot of success  putting up 1.9 xG and getting off 13 attempts inside Atletico's box.
  • Under Eduoardo Coudet Celta have improved, at least in attack. His side has scored on average 1.78 goals per game and failed to hit the net just 3 times in 14
  • Looking at just league games they've averaged out 1.48xG in the league under Coudet.
  • The players which seem to be having the biggest impact on attacking production are Brais Mendez and Iago Aspas who are all in line to start
  • Dennis Suarez who missed the last two is also back in the squad which only helps their case for a goal in this game.
  • Celta have a strong recent record against top 6 sides with 1.3 points per game and 1.4 goal scored per game (W3 D4 L3)

Final word: The line looks too generous, Atleti were vulnerable on the flanks with their make-shift full backs last match and I expect the same here.

*If you can't bet this line then BTTS is fine if above 2.1