Austria Over 1.5 team goals at 1.67 with Pinnacle/Boylesports - 2 units (Minimum 1.62)
- Austria are tied neck and neck with Norway and will want a convincing win here as they try to secure promotion from League B
- When this fixture was played in Belfast, Austria won 1-0 but the xG and shot count show it was a lot more one sided. 13 shots to 2 and an xG score of 2.04-0.12
- Also worth noting that Austria didn't have Sabitzer or Lazaro available for that game. As of today both are available
- During qualification Sabitzer was worth 0.44 Goals + Assists per 90 while Lazaro was slightly higher with 0.47 Goals + Assists
- Austria slipped up only once at home this year at home that came in the form of a 2-3 loss to Romania, a game they could have won. Romania got off 4 attempts on goal and scored 3 times, overall the xG shows Austria probably should have come away with the points (xG1.91-1.25).
- Alexander Schlager was in goal for that game and it was a very poor showing. He probably won't start here with RB Salzburg's Stankovic favoured. Of all the keepers used Stankovic has been by far the best option with 3 clean sheets from 4 and 1 goal conceded from a total xG of 2.75
- Prior to that Romania loss they beat Macedonia 2-1 with again putting up healthy xG numbers and shots (2.21xG and 15 attempts)
- Looking at their home games in qualification they were incredibly consistent. Even in the game they didn't win they were productive in front of goal
- Against Poland they lost 1-0 but got off 18 attempts on goal and put up an almost identical xG to the Poles. They were arguably the better side that day.
- vs Slovenia the scoreline didn't reflect the performance, they only won 1-0 but again very consistent in attack with 1.91xG and 18 attempts on goal
- Coming into this match they took on Luxembourg and fielded a complete B team but still ran out 3-0 winners generating 1.74xG and getting off 15 attempts
- Northern Ireland's focus is on their Euro 2020 play-off tonight which could potentially go into extra time
- Looking at the group here Northern Ireland are bottom and are most likely to be relegated with just one point from 4 games
- Over the last calendar year, Northern Ireland have played 4 road games with 2.25 goals conceded per 90 and 1.91xGA conceded per 90. (Teams faced Norway, Bosnia, Romania, and Germany)
- Under new coach Ian Baraclough, Northern Ireland have regressed a little. We've seen 5 games so far. 1.75xGA per 90 with 0.93xG for per 90
- In their last UNL campaign under Michael O'Neill they at least had a much stronger average xGA (0.99) and a slightly better chance creation (1.38 xG per 90) average
Final word: Austria are very consistent with their output, particularly at home, expect them to take advantage of Northern Ireland's situation and maintain their position as group leaders.