Barcelona -1 Asian Handicap at 1.67 with Pinnacle - 2 units
- Barcelona currently sit 12th in the league after one of their worst starts in over 25 years but is the market overreacting?
- In terms of attacking numbers, their goals and xG per 90 are pretty much in line with last season (2.18 goals and 1.85xG per 90 mins in all competitions)
- Barcelona have won 8 of their last 10 matches against teams in the middle-third of the table (Betis 7th with one game extra played)
- Against bottom half teams this record improves to 9 wins in their last 10 with 3 goals scored per 90 (Betis 15th last term)
- In terms of team news Barca should be close to full strength with ter-Stegen returning between the sticks. Coutinho who isn't an automatic starter is the only serious doubt.
- It's understandable that the market is kind of low on Barca after they failed to pump a weakened Dynamo mid-week, Barca ran up the xG here and conceded one big chance, I wouldn't be overly concerned with the performance
- If you rewatch the game you'll see that Barca could have easily been up 3-0, or 4-0 inside the first 20 mins
- Betis have had a decent start to the season but let's take a closer look at their results this season
- All the games they took points in have come against teams in the bottom half of the table (Elche, Alaves, Valladolid, and Valencia)
- Elche, Valencia, and Valladolid in particular are the three worst defences in the league right now (Elche overperforming their xG)
- In their other matches with Top half teams they have lost 4/4 with 2 goals scored and 11 conceded (Real Madrid, La Real, Getafe, and Atletico)
- Last season Betis went W0 D1 L3 in their trips to top 4 teams. The one positive result was a 0-0 with Real Madrid (xG 2.80-0.44) They should have lost that game.
- Betis have lost by 2 more goals in 6 of their last 7 trips to the Camp Nou too.
- Betis got beat 5-2 by a Barca team without Messi last season (xG 2.85-0.15)
- Betis currently rank among the bottom 6 in Spain for goals against, xGA, and non-penalty xGA.
Final word: Let's not have recency bias cloud out judgement, Barcelona despite the recent media circus surrounding them are a very dangerous team, particularly at the Camp Nou, expect them to press on here as they attempt to recover their season