Lokomotiv Over 1.5 team goals at 3.9 (min 3.6) - 1 unit

*posted to our private Telegram on Saturday afternoon

  • Bayern are expected to line up with a few fringe players for this meaningless match, some German media are reporting that the likes of Choupo-Moting, Musiala, Nübel and Roca will start but I won't be surprised to see more academy players take the field. Lucas Hernandez and Jerome Boateng are both carrying knocks and probably don't have 90 mins in them. Also Pavard and Alaba played 90 at the weekend too
  • Personally I'll be shocked if academy players like Arrey-Mbi and Chris Richards don't get some game time. With this in mind I don't believe Bayern should be priced as short as they are.
  • After this Bayern will play 3 Bundesliga games that will be congested into a 7 day period (12th, 16th, 19th December) before the winter break, Bayern won't want anymore needless injuries
  • When these two met in Russia Bayern fielded their best XI or close to it and were pushed all the way. Lokomotiv got off 15 attempts (10 in Bayern's box) generating 1.22xG.
  • Lokomotiv unlike Bayern have something to play for, they can still reach the Europa League, they will need a results to go there way elsewhere though
  • Lokomotiv have only failed to score in one UCL game this season, that was away to Atletico Madrid
  • Bayern who conceded 3 at the weekend are currently giving up 1.26 goals per 90 mins with an even higher xGA of 1.36 (all compet. For context, last season they allowed 0.9 goals per 90 with an average xGA of 0.95
  • Since thumping Schalke 8-0 at the start of the season, Bayern have conceded in 8 of 9 domestic games with 2 or more goals being conceded in 44%

Final word: Expect the Russians to play without fear and to have some success  against what should be a Bayern B team. (Lokomotiv Over 1 team goal at around 2.3 also a great option if your book has it)