Stuttgart +2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.6 (min 1.55) 2 units

Bayern Munich

  • Bayern, who had a midweek game, are expected to rotate a bit here; Kimmich, Neuer, and Gnabry are set to be rested, although none have been officially ruled out.
  • Regardless of the line-up, however, I think Bayern are little overestimated against a tough opponent.
  • Bayern have only put in two dominant performances this season when following a UCL match, one came near the start of the season (5-0 vs Frankfurt, the other more recently against FC Koln)
  • When the sides last met at the end of November, Bayern won 3-1 but lost the xG (1.39-0.89) and shot count (15-12).
  • When taking on Top half teams (Stuttgart 8th), Bayern have only won 5 of their last 10 with 21 scored and 16 conceded.
  • Currently, Bayern are giving up too many chances; they rank 4th best in Germany for xGA, 6th best for goals against and 5th best for shots against per 90 (Bayern ranked 1st in all these categories last season)
  • Since the Club World Cup, Bayern have not kept a clean sheet despite playing some of the weakest sides in Germany (Arminia, Koln, Werder)
  • Bayern have only won 4 of their last 20 Bundesliga games by a 3 or more goal margin.
  • Considering Stuttgart likely get on the scoresheet here, Bayern will need at least 4 goals for the bet to lose. It could obviously happen but unlikely in my view.

Stuttgart

  • Stuttgart are coming off 5 straight games without a defeat. Wins over Koln, Schalke, and Hoffenheim + draws against Frankfurt and Hertha means they're still in contention for a European place.
  • Stuttgart's team news isn't that bad; the only starter out is CM Orel Mangala.
  • Since being promoted, Stuttgart have been beaten just twice by a 3 goal margin. vs Arminia (3-0, Stuttgart got an early red card) and against Leverkusen (5-3)
  • This season against Top 6, Stuttgart are a very respectable W1 D3 L3. Only one of these games was a loss by 3 or goals (Leverkusen)
  • As mentioned, Stuttgart should have at least a goal in them for this game, possibly 2 if we're lucky. So far this season, they have put up 1.88 goals per 90 with 1.85xG per 90
  • Looking at the last 20 Bundesliga match weeks, we can see Bayern have the worst clean sheet record in the league with just 3 clean sheets kept. Assuming Stuttgart keep 11 men on the pitch, they really should be scoring at least once.

Final word: Stuttgart will take confidence from the meeting in November. Expect a competitive display with the visitors covering.