Wolfsburg +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.94 with Bet365 - 2 units (min 1.85)

Bayern Munich

  • Bayern have problems for this game, in particular with their double pivot. Both Kimmich/Goretzka/Martinez won't play a part so that means two of Musiala/Roca/Tolisso will deputise in their place
  • In particular, Bayern concede a lot with Musiala on the pitch, 1.7 goals per 90 to be exact, things are not much better with Tolisso with 1.55 goals conceded per 90
  • Expected XI: Neuer, Pavard, Sule, Alaba, Lucas, Tolisso, Musiala, Gnabry, Muller, Coman, Lewandowski [BILD]
  • Bayern have been exceeding their xG in the Bundesliga by a large distance (not sustainable) they are scoring at a rate of 3.18 goals per game while only generating 2.15xG. I don't care how good players are that kind of difference isn't sustainable long term
  • At the back, they're the worst they've been in over 5 years with 1.55 goals conceded per 90 and 1.35xGA allowed per 90
  • The matches these teams played last season were relatively close, the first a 2-0 win for Bayern that required two goals in the last 5 mins to secure the win. The game was extremely close before Bayern broke the deadlock. The 2nd was a 4-1 win for Bayern but again two late goals and a red card for Wolfsburg painted a different picture, that game was also close.
  • From the looks of that Union Berlin game, fixture congestion has caught up with this Bayern team and Wolfsburg won't give them room to breathe tonight.

Wolfsburg

  • Wolfsburg have entered a nice run of form after struggling a lot with injuries and COVID related absences
  • This season they along with Leverkusen are the only unbeaten teams in the Bundesliga
  • Here the only notable loss is Renato Steffen but Wolfsburg have cover in Brekalo, Baku and Phillip
  • In terms of defence, Wolfsburg have been excellent again this season under Oliver Glasner, they rank 5th best for xGA, 3rd best for goals against and 4th best for shots against per 90.
  • In terms of pressing, they along with Bayern and RB Leipzig are the best in the league.
  • Wolfsburg tend to keep things relatively tight when playing Top 6 opponents, in their last 10 their games have averaged just 2.2 goals per match
  • Wolfsburg unlike last season have no European distraction which should play into their favour this season.

Final word: Bayern with Tolisso/Musiala in midfield will struggle today, expect them to concede at least once and for Wolfsburg to cover the spread as they attempt to take something from the game.