Juventus v Roma

  • Fading Juventus in this spot seems obvious, Sarri hinted at total rotation with the UCL match with Lyon only days away. For those that aren't aware this is a meaningless match with only pride on the line
  • Juve were abysmal in their 2-0 loss to Cagliari last time out and I'd be shocked to see any kinds of improvements here
  • Roma have secured UEL football for next season but would love to finish the season on a high beating the league leaders
  • Roma have been playing extremely well in attack despite all the rotation. From their last 6 matches we've seen the Giallorossi generate an average of 2.97xG per match
  • For those that remember last season, these two met under similar circumstances (Juve had won the league) and Roma ran out 2-0 winners that day
  • Since Juve's 3-1 win over Genoa back on June 30th we've seen some very concerning defensive displays. They've kept just one clean sheet (vs Samp but allowed 1.74xGA) and allowed on average 1.72xGA
  • From the above sample they've also allowed 1.87 goals per game
  • On top of the players that Sarri will surely rest, Douglas Costa, Khedira, De Sciglio, Danilo, and Dybala will be unavailable with injuries. Pjanic is also suspended.
Roma Over 1.5 team goals at 1.94 with Pinnacle - 2 units

Lecce v Parma

  • There's no indication from the Parma camp that they'll be fielding a "B" team and rolling over for Lecce. Parma can still achieve a top half finish which is important for economic reasons (Prize money + TV Revenue money)
  • Lecce who we have discussed in length this season cannot defend, they are very error prone playing out from the back and will give up chances. Lecce's strength is going forward not on the back foot
  • Lecce will potentially be weaker here too, Paz (CB) is suspended and will be replaced by Biagio Meccariello (681 league mins) Lecce Perform slightly worse in the GA (goals against) and xGA (expected goals against) when he plays, Marco Mancosu (MF) is also a doubt
  • Lecce have conceded 2.9 goals per match when playing against teams in the top half (Parma joint 10th) Lecce have also conceded 2.2 goals per game when facing teams in the middle-third
  • Lecce have managed just 2 clean sheets in their last 20 Serie A games
  • Parma's form should also be considered, they have scored in every game since the restart and are coming off a 2-1 win over Napoli and a very respectable loss against a very strong Atalanta side.
  • Finally, when the teams met earlier in the season Parma ran out 2-0 winners while generating 2.15xG
Parma Over 1.5 team goals at 2.88 with Betfair SB -1.5 units

Genoa v Verona

  • I'm eager to fade Genoa here, I know they need a result, but they also needed a result against Sassuolo and got thumped 5-0. They aren't playing well and I believe Verona will still prove to be a very tough opponent
  • Like the Parma match above, there's no indication that Verona will "roll over" and let Genoa win. Verona can still improve their league position so expect them to be competitive
  • From their last 10 matches with teams in the bottom 6, Verona have only conceded 8 goals (3rd best in the league)
  • Genoa have been awful against teams in the top half, in fact, if we just look at their last 10 against top-half teams they're the worst in the league with a record that reads W1 D2 L7 with 8 scored and 20 conceded
  • In terms of form, things couldn't be worse for Genoa, they have conceded 8 unanswered goals in their last 180 mins of action
  • Genoa have won only 2 of their last 20 matches by a 2+ goal margin
  • Verona's coach Juric said that they will play a "real game" they want to end the season in style
  • In terms of team news, Verona have no key players that are ruled out yet. but some need to be evaluated.
Verona +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.63 with Pinnacle - 2 units
Verona Over 1.5 team goals at 3.25 with Bet365 - 1.5 units