RB Salzburg +2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.68 with Bet365(1.63 min) - 2 units

Bayern

  • Bayern disappointed at the weekend drawing 1-1 with Werder Bremen, this could be a result of a hangover from the fixture congestion and a large % of their first team squad being away on International duty
  • In the Werder game they lost Lucas Hernandez who came off injured. He probably won't be available here.
  • This now means they'll be without Kimmich, Davies, Lucas Hernandez, and Corentin Tolisso. Sarr and Martinez are also doubts
  • This season at least Bayern have been at their best defensively with Kimmich and Lucas on the pitch so they should feel their absence here.
  • Bayern have now kept no clean sheets in their last 5 in all competitions
  • Considering their strong group position (9 points) it would probably be wise for Flick to rotate a little here for what should be a winnable game
  • In the last fixture these two played out a 6-2 that was a lot closer than the score suggests, Salzburg got off 7 shots (15 total) in Bayern's box generating 1.49xG and scoring twice.
  • The game was balanced on a knife edge around the 78th min (2-2), Once Bayern took the lead at 3-2 however Leipzig's heads dropped and Bayern were ruthless until the final whistle

Salzburg

  • Salzburg have scored 2+ goals in all their UCL matches this season incl qualifiers. They even scored twice against Atletico Madrid at the Wanda which almost unheard of
  • Their average xG for these matches has been 2.12 so it's not like they're getting lucky either
  • Defensively RB Salzburg do leave a lot to be desired, they have conceded 11 goals so far but their xGA suggests this number is a little high which may be skewing people's perception
  • According to their xGA total (6.59) they've been on the wrong side of variance these first few games.
  • Worth noting as well that the Bayern result was the only time Salzburg (UCL Group stage) have lost by a goal margin of 3 or more
  • Although Salzburg are a very talented team they wouldn't have been as affected by the last International break. From what I cans see only Ulmer, Szoboszlai, Camara, Mwepu, and Koita were involved while almost all of Bayern's first XI were

Final word: Bayern are a different team without Kimmich and I believe this market is massively skewed because of the last game. Salzburg can keep this competitive