Bayern have taken 3 away goals back to the Allianz for this tie and are currently 99% of their way into the quarter-finals. With the Germans almost certainly through, I'll try to identify where the value lies.
- Bayern are once again an attacking juggernaut under Flick. Since Kovac was sacked Bayern, have scored 100 goals in 32 games under the former assistant Manager.
- In the first leg, Bayern posted 2.79xG to Chelsea's 1.00. Chelsea got off 7 attempts inside Bayern's box, but overall it was nothing to shout about. Chelsea didn't turn up and got utterly steamrolled on the night.
- I don't want to focus too much on Bayern's strength in attack, that's obvious. We'll take a closer look at their backline.
- Bayern will be without Benjamin Pavard at RB, he's been used heavily as a RB and CB within Flicks system. With him absent Kimmich will drop back from his role in the double pivot with Thiago
- Off-field drama: Alaba (Bayern's best defensive player) has been demanding an improved contract which Bayern are not willing to pay. This isn't the best preparation heading into the UCL KO stages
- Thiago (Bayern's best CM) has also been told he can leave once an acceptable fee is received. Having such key players futures in the air isn't ideal in my opinion.
- Bayern have been dominant at home in the UCL both in attack and defence this season but how much can we take from those matches against Red Star, Olympiacos, and a Spurs B team?
- Let's take a look at how Bayern have performed this season against the only two teams in Germany with similar xG numbers to Chelsea (Gladbach and RB Leipzig) *BVB score lots but their xG isn't close to Chelsea.
- In their 4 league games, they kept just one clean sheet. Their average xGA from these games was 1.46
- Frank Lampard has maintained that this tie is not over and will do everything he can to turn the tie around. We have seen crazier comebacks in recent times so who can blame him.
- Chelsea have a long list of key personnel injured/suspended but should be able to field a strong XI
- Expected XI: Willy, Zouma, Christensen, Rudiger, Emerson, Kovacic, Barkley/Kante, James, CHO//Willian, Abraham/Giroud, and Mount
- Across both EPL and UCL this season Chelsea have scored 1.87 per 90 while generating 1.95xG per 90. They also finished the season as the 9th best chance creators in Europe. It may surprise you that their xG total was only slightly less than Liverpool and higher than teams like RB Leipzig, BVB, Barcelona, and Real Madrid.
- Chelsea will play without fear here, there are ZERO expectations. I think this will only benefit them.
Final word: This has all the hallmarks of a shoot out. Bayern will be ruthless, but they're far from water-tight at the back. Expect a Chelsea side with nothing to lose to register at least once.
Over 1 Chelsea Goal at 1.94 with Pinnacle (push if exactly 1) - 2 units
*If you can't back this I advise backing the Over 1.5 team total on Chelsea with a lower stake (3.00 available on Bet365)