Here we have two bottom-tier defences (Lecce worst in the league), so I’m expecting goals.
Lecce are 4 points adrift of safety, and with desperation starting to creep in, they will need to go for a win and as a result leave holes at the back.
- Even when we look at Lecce's matches against team with similar xG outputs this season we see them conceding 2+ in the majority. Fiorentina and Sassuolo have similar numbers to Bologna and both had plenty of success against their backline. Sassuolo scored 6 in their 2 meetings, Fiorentina scored 4
- When the two met earlier in the lease Bologna scored 3 and generated a whopping 4.46xG while getting off 24 attempts on goal
- It could also be argued that this Bologna team which is expected to line up tomorrow is even strong in attack with Musa Barrow spearheading the attack instead of Rodrigo Palacio
- Lecce love to play the ball out of the back and I feel with Bologna's intense pressing they will be forced into plenty of mistakes. (Bologna rank 1st Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action PPDA this season)
- Bologna are also coming into this match on the back of an extra days rest
Final word: Lecce's real strength lies in their build up play and forward progression. At the back they are hopeless and I expect Bologna to take full advantage as they did last time round.
Bologna Over 1.5 team goals at 1.91 with Pinnacle - 2 units