Zambia to win at 2.4 with Betfair Sportsbook (1xBet and Coolbet slightly better) - 1.5 units

Zambia

  • Zambia are under new management, Milutin Sredojević who has a lot of experience managing and Club and International level in Africa has taken the reigns. So far his team have performed excellently in his opening two games
  • Zambia took on Botswana on Thursday and ran out 2-1 winners. The scoreline indicates it was close but it wasn't Zambia generated 2.25 xG to Botswana's 0.25 (20 attempts to 6)
  • Worth noting that Botswana's average shot distance was from 22 meters out
Zambia shot map from Thursday
  • Zambia need another win here against the weakest team in their group to have a chance at qualifying. Zimbabwe sit in 2nd place 1 point ahead of them but they have to take on Algeria next so this is great chance to leap frog them
  • Thursday's win is also coming off another win over one of the strongest nations in Africa (RSA), they put up 2.21 xG in that match with 12 attempts on goal
  • Prior to that they did lose to Kenya in Nairobi but they were the dominant side in that one too, they also had a goal wrongfully (in my opinion) disallowed
  • Another positive for Zambia here will be travel time, there's not a huge travel time between Lusaka and Gaborone, home advantage can be huge in Africa but the relatively close distance between the cities should help them

Botswana

  • Botswana are currently a bottom tier nation in Africa and almost all their squad is made up of players from the Botswana Premier League (most from Township FC)
  • Botswana are winless in their last 10 internationals (W0 D4 L6 - 3 scored, 9 conceded)
  • Looking at just AFCON qualification games they're winless in their last 11 (W0 D2 L11 4 scored - 15 conceded
  • Under their current coach (Adel Amrouche) they have scored 1 goal in 7 games
  • I don't have a lot of long term data on Botswana but what jumps out from their last 3 AFCON qualification games is how bad they are at creating chances, from their matches with Zambia, Algeria, and Zimbabwe they managed to get off just 1 shot on target
  • Their average xG from these games was 0.18

Final word: The match on Thursday was very telling, there's a big gulf in quality between these two teams and I don't believe home advantage for Botswana will be that great. It's a shame more don't have this priced up but the lines currently are very generous