Both teams to score: Yes at 1.81 with Pinnacle (1.75 min) - 2 units
Over 1 Parma goal at 1.91 with Pinnacle - 2 units

Cagliari

  • Much like Parma, this is a must-win game for Cagliari, who are looking very likely to be relegated.
  • Under Semplici, Cagliari have failed to find the net twice in 7 games, but both were against vastly superior defensive sides (Verona and Inter). In those games, their xG wasn't horrible (2.79 against Verona and 0.8 against Inter)
  • From these games, they took on a bottom 6 opponent twice (Spezia and Crotone). In both games, they scored and posted respectable xG numbers.
  • Their average xG for the season is 1.3, but with Semplici, that increases to 1.51xG per 90; considering their opponent here, we should expect similar or better numbers.
  • Again they will be without their starting GK Cragno; backup Vicario is set to start.
  • These two played out a dull 0-0 back in December, but both clubs were under different management, and I'd go so far as to say I'd put zero weight into that result.

Parma

  • Parma are in slightly deeper water than Cagliari, so only a win will suffice for D'Avera's men.
  • Last week against Milan (3-1 loss) was another game where Parma probably should have come away with something; they generated 2.51xG with 15 attempts on goal but only scored once.
  • Since losing 2-1 to Inter back at the start of March, Parma have been consistent in front of goal with a goal in every game and an xG average of 2.15
  • The additions of Pellé and Man have added a lot more depth to Parma's attack. Mihăilă and Cornelius will also be valuable options off the bench if needed.
  • With Pellé on the pitch, Parma sees a significant increase in both goals per 90 and xG; he's in line to start this game with Gervinho and Man playing off him.
  • Defensively there should be concerns too, under D'Aversa (15 games) there has been just one clean sheet, 2+ conceded in 87%
  • Parma's xGA has increased slightly under D'Aversa (1.51 per 90) but they are scoring much more.

Final word: Parma are a far more dynamic attacking team than they were in the 1st half of the season, and I don't believe the market has fully factored that in.