• Sassuolo have been the most entertaining team in Europe along with Atalanta these past few weeks but there are few reasons why I believe the high scoring games will come to an end here.
  • Firstly Sassuolo are expected to rotate heavily here, fringe/primavera players like Lukáš Haraslín and Giacomo Raspadori are expected to start. I won’t take anything away from those players as I’ve liked what I’ve seen but… Berardi and Boga have combined for 24 goals and 9 assists this season. They won’t be at their strongest here. (Berardi is suspended so he won’t be an option off the bench)
  • Other attacking players like Caputo and Djuric have been putting in a lot of minutes and will likely have to play the majority here.
  • Walter Zenga has now taken charge of 8 games with Cagliari. From those 8 games, their games have averaged 2 goals per game which is way below the league average (3.02)
  • From those 8 games, the average total xG is low too ~ 2.6. The only team to put up significant numbers against them was Atalanta who generated 3.08xG. outside of the penalty Atalanta scored from they didn’t actually manage any huge chances
  • We should also note that Cagliari were reduced to 10 men after 25 mins.
  • Judging from Italian Media it seems Cagliari will line up with 5 at the back (Mattiello, Carboni, Ceppitelli, Pisacane, and Farago)
  • It’s worth noting as well that Cagliari’s attacking output is blunted with Nainggolan out injured too. Of players with 2000+ mins, none contribute more to Cagliari’s team xG per 90

Final word

I’m not a fan of Cagliari or Zenga but I believe the goals line has been blown out of proportion here, Sassuolo are massively outperforming their xG and Zenga’s defensive set-up could be enough to suck the life out of this game.

Under 3.5 Total Goals at 1.75 with Marathonbet - 2 units (This line is rising so it may be worth waiting for a more generous line, the public should be all over the 'Over'

Don't bet below 1.67