- Dortmund have won 8 of their last 10 matches against bottom 6 teams scoring 3.2 goals per 90 while only conceding 1.00
- In terms of goal difference and xG Difference per 90 at home, Dortmund are only second to Bayern Munich
- Let’s take a closer look at how Dortmund have performed at home against teams in the bottom 6
- Augsburg: 5-1 win (xG 3.26-0.9) - This game was one way traffic for the entire match
- Werder: 2-2 draw (xG 1.76-0.98) - Not an impressive performance but Dortmund should have won comfortably - Worth noting that Dortmund’s XI was fairly weak here too without Hummels, Guerreiro, Brandt, and of course Can and Haaland were not in the squad
- Paderborn: 3-3 draw (xG 1.91-2.11) - I actually remember this game fondly as I was on Paderborn but again worth noting that Dortmund’s XI was weak with a number of defensive players missing including Zagadou and Akanji
- Dusseldorf 5-0 Win (xG 3.95-.0.1) - One of their best performances of the season, Sancho, Hazard and Reus were all on fire
- FC Koln: 5-0 win: Another masterful display against a tough opponent. FC Koln were unbeaten in 5 of 7 games under Markus Gisdol before this match
- Union Berlin: 5-0 win (xG 3.29-0.56) Union didn’t even hit the target in this match while Dortmund were deadly scoring 5 from their 7 attempts on target
- When BVB and Mainz last locked horns, BVB ran out 4-0 winners. The scoreline flattered Dortmund a bit as they only generated 1.5xG. However this was as the scoreline suggests, very one sided. Mainz didn't create a single worthwhile chance
- We can also see some big results since Erling Haaland joined Dortmund. Has he really been a defining factor? The answer is yes. With him on the pitch Dortmund average 3.3 goals per 90. No other player with 900+ mins contributes more to the team’s success in front of goal.
Under Achim Beierlorzer Mainz have faced the “Top 4” four times and lost all those by at least 2 goals
BVB 4-0 loss, Gladbach 3-1 loss, Bayern 3-1 loss, RB Leipzig 5-0 loss
Let’s break that down
- Average xG: 0.44
- Average xGA per 90: 2.94
Looking at the season as a whole, they have lost 7 of their 10 matches with Top 6 opponents scoring 10 and conceding 28 (3rd worst in the league)
If we filter this to just road games the goal difference is even worse. 31 conceded and only 9 scored.
Dortmund will be without Dahoud, Zagadou, Reus (doubt), and Delaney.
Expected XI: Bürki - Piszczek (c), Hummels, Akanji - Hakimi, Can, Witsel, Guerreiro - Sancho, Haaland, Reyna
Mainz will be without Awoniyi, Fernandes (starting CM), Zentner (starting GK)
Expected XI: Müller - Baku, St. Juste, Niakhate, Brosinski - Barreiro, Latza (c) - Öztunali, Boetius, Quaison - Mateta
Mainz backup GK Florian Muller is conceding a goal on average every 37.5 mins. Not all his fault of course but nonetheless he’s not helping their cause.
Dortmund -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.82 with Pinnacle - 2 units