Dortmund

  1. Dortmund have won 8 of their last 10 matches against bottom 6 teams scoring 3.2 goals per 90 while only conceding 1.00
  2. In terms of goal difference and xG Difference per 90 at home, Dortmund are only second to Bayern Munich
  3. Let’s take a closer look at how Dortmund have performed at home against teams in the bottom 6
  4. Augsburg: 5-1 win (xG 3.26-0.9) - This game was one way traffic for the entire match
  5. Werder: 2-2 draw (xG 1.76-0.98) - Not an impressive performance but Dortmund should have won comfortably - Worth noting that Dortmund’s XI was fairly weak here too without Hummels, Guerreiro, Brandt, and of course Can and Haaland were not in the squad
  6. Paderborn: 3-3 draw (xG 1.91-2.11) - I actually remember this game fondly as I was on Paderborn but again worth noting that Dortmund’s XI was weak with a number of defensive players missing including Zagadou and Akanji
  7. Dusseldorf 5-0 Win (xG 3.95-.0.1) - One of their best performances of the season, Sancho, Hazard and Reus were all on fire
  8. FC Koln: 5-0 win: Another masterful display against a tough opponent. FC Koln were unbeaten in 5 of 7 games under Markus Gisdol before this match
  9. Union Berlin: 5-0 win (xG 3.29-0.56) Union didn’t even hit the target in this match while Dortmund were deadly scoring 5 from their 7 attempts on target
  10. When BVB and Mainz last locked horns, BVB ran out 4-0 winners. The scoreline flattered Dortmund a bit as they only generated 1.5xG. However this was as the scoreline suggests, very one sided. Mainz didn't create a single worthwhile chance
  11. We can also see some big results since Erling Haaland joined Dortmund. Has he really been a defining factor? The answer is yes. With him on the pitch Dortmund average 3.3 goals per 90. No other player with 900+ mins contributes more to the team’s success in front of goal.

Mainz

Under Achim Beierlorzer Mainz have faced the “Top 4” four times and lost all those by at least 2 goals

BVB 4-0 loss, Gladbach 3-1 loss, Bayern 3-1 loss, RB Leipzig 5-0 loss

Let’s break that down

  • Average xG: 0.44
  • Average xGA per 90: 2.94

Looking at the season as a whole, they have lost 7 of their 10 matches with Top 6 opponents scoring 10 and conceding 28 (3rd worst in the league)

If we filter this to just road games the goal difference is even worse. 31 conceded and only 9 scored.

Team News:

Dortmund will be without Dahoud, Zagadou, Reus (doubt), and Delaney.

Expected XI: Bürki - Piszczek (c), Hummels, Akanji - Hakimi, Can, Witsel, Guerreiro - Sancho, Haaland, Reyna

Mainz will be without Awoniyi, Fernandes (starting CM), Zentner (starting GK)

Expected XI: Müller - Baku, St. Juste, Niakhate, Brosinski - Barreiro, Latza (c) - Öztunali, Boetius, Quaison - Mateta

Mainz backup GK Florian Muller is conceding a goal on average every 37.5 mins. Not all his fault of course but nonetheless he’s not helping their cause.

Dortmund -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.82 with Pinnacle - 2 units