Sevilla +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.74 with Pinnacle - 2 units

Dortmund

  • Dortmund came away with 3 away goals in Sevilla and are set up very nicely to qualify; they have to make sure they keep things responsible at the back and don't get overly reckless.
  • The story of that first leg was how Haaland put on a clinic and almost single-handedly beat Sevilla. Although he is in line to start here, he did leave the field injured at the weekend and may not be 100%
  • Jadon Sancho, Axel Witsel, Gio Reyna (doubt), Raphaël Guerreiro (doubt), and Manuel Akanji played in the first leg, but they likely won't be available for this game. All are automatic starters.
  • Dortmund are expected to line up as follows: Hitz, Morey, Hummels, Zagadou, Schulz - Can, Delaney, Dahoud - Reus, Hazard - Haaland.
  • Under Terzic, we've seen Dortmund fail to win 7 of 17 games.
  • Although Haaland drew all the attention at the beginning of the match, Dortmund were poor again at the weekend vs Bayern. They had two attempts on target, which were converted, but at the other end, they conceded 4 goals, 24 attempts and a total xGA of 3.28
  • Being crushed by your bitter rival after taking a 0-2 lead won't do much for morale/confidence.
  • Just a side note on a few players there, Dortmund's team xGA with Zagadou, Schulz, and Morey is quite bad this season (small sample sizes). If they all start, Dortmund will be at a disadvantage.

Sevilla

  • Sevilla needs to score twice and preferably not concede if they're to qualify for the next round. Although goals are needed, I'm not anticipating a gung-ho approach from Lopetegui. Engaging in an end to end firefight with Dortmund won't end well for Sevilla.
  • Although Sevilla lost the 1st leg is was a pretty close game; the xG was 0.85-1.63 in Dortmund's favour. Dortmund created two big chances (both Haaland's goals) and converted one low% chance from Dahoud (0.02xG)
  • Sevilla controlled possession (64%), got off more shots (11) but didn't really create anything worthwhile.
  • Sevilla will be better off here with Ocampos being available; after El-Nesryi, he's Sevilla best goal contributor.
  • Sevilla are expected to line up as follows: Bono, Navas, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna, Jordan, Fernando, Rakitic, Suso, de Jong/El Nesryi, Ocampos.
  • Sevilla's xG output has been decent this campaign (1.63 per 90), the 1st leg was actually their 2nd worst output of the tournament (0-0 with Chelsea the worst), so I won't be surprised to see an improvement here considering Dortmund's squad issues.
  • Apart from the loss to BVB last time out, Lopetegui's record in Europe is pretty staggering, the only other games they've lost were against Chelsea and APOEL. Both games were meaningless, and rotation was heavy.

Final word: Sevilla have a decent chance here, especially if Haaland's fitness is a problem; at a minimum, we should expect them to avoid defeat.