Juventus Over 1.5 team goals @ 2.11 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units
I don’t think we can put any weight into the Crotone draw at the weekend, Juve gave away a sloppy penalty and got a man sent off while rotating their best XI heavily
From what I understand the XI here should look something like this Szczęsny, Bonucci, Chiellini, Danilo, Chiesa, Bentancur, Rabiot, Cuadrado, Ramsey, Kulusevski, Morata
Juventus will also be able to call on Dybala off the bench if needed too
Juventus under Pirlo so far have averaged 2 goals per 90 with 1.86xG. (small sample size) It is true they have been more vulnerable at the back but going forward things are encouraging for their new progressive coach
With Morata getting off the mark at the weekend too he should be fired up, he generally performs quite well in the competition with around 0.5 goals per 90 with a similar xG per 90 score.
Having Aaron Ramsey on the pitch is a big plus too, although he was criticised for his season last year Juventus did average 2.3 goals per game (all comps) with the Welshman on the pitch (highest of any player with 1000 mins)
Dynamo have started their domestic campaign excellently but if we take a look at their two UCL qualification games we see some worrying trends.
Against AZ they narrowly progressed and as the xG score shows it was closer than the 2-0 scoreline (1.38-1.00)
Against Gent (2 legs) they allowed a total of 4.42xGA over the 180 mins. The 5-1 agg scoreline completely flattered them
Looking at their season as a whole under the newly appointed Lucescu we see a massive overperformance particularly in defence, this side is allowing 1.2xGA per 90 while only conceding 0.5 goals per 90
The only opponent they’ve faced this season that would be ranked anywhere close to Juventus would be Shakhtar in the Super Cup, they won that game 3-1 but again they gave up a lot of big chances and were lucky to get the win. Dynamo had 3 shots on target and scored 3 times (0.94xG) while Shakhtar got off 16 attempts totalling 2.22xG
Now how have Dynamo done in previous campaigns when playing in Kyiv?
Last year they were eliminated by Brugge and gave up 3 goals here
The year prior they held Ajax in qualification to a 0-0 but gave up an incredible 4.31xGA
Kyiv have actually lost 6 of their last 7 home games when facing teams from a Top 5 league. A 0-0 with Chelsea back in 2015 the only positive result (xG 0.22-1.00 in Chelsea’s favour)
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