Both teams to score: Yes @ 1.98 with Unibet/888 - 2 units

*posted to Telegram at 22:15 on Wednesday

England

  • England have faced Scotland, Czech Rep, and the ghosts of World Cup runners up Croatia. They are yet to come up against a top tier attack.
  • From those group games, they averaged 1.01xGA with 0 goals conceded, so not as water-tight as the results suggest.
  • The only recent top tier attacks who have travelled here in recent times are Spain in the UNL (2-1 loss), Belgium (2-1 win with 2.12xGA allowed) and Denmark (0-1 loss with 1.31xGA conceded)
  • I wouldn’t put Poland into the same bracket as those teams, but they managed to get on the scoresheet here in a recent World Cup qualifier (2-1, 0.56xGA conceded)
  • England's attacking output of 2.7 xG isn't exceptional, but unlike Scotland/Czech Rep/Croatia, Germany are likely to be a lot more aggressive with their high defensive line. This should mean more opportunities, especially if England can create an increased number of turnovers.
  • Going back to their 2020 UNL home matches against Iceland, Belgium, and Denmark, we see a healthy 2.08xG per 90 with an average of 15 attempts on goal.
  • In EC qualification games, they scored 4+ goals in every match while posting 3.65xG p90 (Montenegro, Kosovo, Bulgarian, and Czech Rep)
  • Excluding the games against Scotland (0-0) and Denmark (0-1), we have to go back to 2010 to find the last competitive game where England failed to score on home turf. Worth noting that England had a man sent off early against Denmark, too (Maguire 31')

Germany

  • The Germans conceded in every group game and allowed on average 1.92xGA per 90 mins.
  • Looking back at their UNL games in 2020, we can see 1.93 xGA allowed per 90 with 2.17 goals (opponents, Spain, Ukraine, and Switzerland)
  • In EC qualification, they faced just one team close to England's level. That was against the Netherlands; they conceded a total of 6 goals and 3.86 total xGA in the two matches.
  • Assuming Germany continue with their 3-4-3 and the high defensive line, we can expect England to have a lot of success with the speed they possess in their team.
  • Germany have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 meetings (competitive), with teams ranked in the Top 10 (England #4)
  • While England have been modest in attack so far, I feel this game with Germany is a good match-up for them.
  • Germany have generated 1.92xG per 90 mins so far. In the game against France, they failed to score but had the lions share of chances. (France were great)
  • In their UNL games, they only failed to score against Spain (average 1.64xG per 90)
  • In EC qualification, they scored 3.75 per 90 with 2.71xG. The only games of note were the ones with the Dutch. Their attacking output in both games was good.
  • In WQC back in March (Macedonia, Romania, and Iceland) they scored in all, generating 1.78xG per 90

Final Word: With Germany's style of play, I don't see a stalemate 0-0, once the first goal goes in, things should open up.