Over 1.5 Milan Goals at 2.25 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units (min odds 2.1)

Fiorentina

  • Despite the 4-1 win over Benevento (16th), this side is going nowhere fast and will be lucky not to be involved in a relegation battle
  • In their last 10 with Top 6 sides, they've conceded 1.9 goals per game and failed to win 9!
  • Most recently we saw Roma, Inter x2, Napoli, Lazio, and Atalanta all score 2+
  • The only match they managed not to concede 2+ (vs top 6) was against Juventus when Juve had a man sent off early.
  • Overall in Serie A, Fiorentina are allowing 1.56 goals per 90 and 1.44xGA per 90. Considering Milan are one of the best attacks in Italy they should have their work cut out for them

Milan

  • Milan have had their issues with injuries but they will be in much better shape here
  • Milan are expected to line up as follows: Donnarumma, Dalot, Kjaer, Tomori, Theo, Tonali, Kessie, Saelemaekers, Çalhanoğlu, Hauge, Ibrahimovic
  • With 2.21xG per 90 in the league this season Milan rank as the 2nd best attack in Italy, only narrowly behind Inter.
  • Zlatan is key, he's putting up 1.26xG per 90 and scoring at a rate of 1.08 goals per 90
  • When playing bottom half teams, Milan have scored 1.9 per game in their last 10 (W6 D3 L1)
  • When travelling away to bottom half teams their output has been slightly better with 2.2 scored per game
  • When the sides met at the end of November, Milan ran out 2-0 winners generating 2.86 with 17 attempts on goal. Milan did that without Zlatan

Final word: Milan have had a tough March against tough opposition (Udinese, Verona, Napoli and Man Utd x2) but this is a favourable match-up for them to get their season back on track