Parma +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.97 with Bet365 - 2 units (min odds 1.87)

Fiorentina

  • Fiorentina who have recorded only three league wins in 2021 are not a team I'd want to be backing at these odds.
  • Those wins also came over Cagliari (17th), Crotone (20th), and Spezia (15th)
  • None of those wins, not even the 3-0 over Spezia were convincing either.
  • Fiorentina's team news isn't ideal, Ribery (FW) is still out, Bonaventura (CM) is out, while Castrovilli (CM) and Igor (CB) are both doubts
  • Since bringing back Prandelli Fiorentina have won 4 of 18 league games. Pressure appears to be mounting too as rumours are going around that the owners are now looking to appoint Rino Gattuso as their next manager.
  • Even when facing teams in the bottom 6, Fiorentina haven't been dominant lately. In their last 10 they've won 4 with 14 scored and 11 conceded
  • When these sides met earlier in the season they played out a 0-0 with less than 1.00 total xG in the match. Parma are improving though thanks to the return of D'Aversa and the January acquisitions (Man, Bani, Conti, Zirkzee, Pellé + more)
  • Team news isn't that bad, we have to remember this squad is very deep now. Of first team regulars only Gervinho and Conti are doubts

Parma

  • Parma are coming off a 2-1 loss to Inter which is fine, that was a game they were always going to lose
  • One thing that has improved lately is their attacking output, since they 3-0 defeat to Bologna at the start of February they have scored in all 4 games while generating 1.73 xG per match. If they can score here there's a great chance they will come away with at least a point
  • D'Aversa is yet to get a win under his belt since returning but in his defence they have only faced two clubs in the bottom half of the table since he arrived back.
  • When travelling to bottom half teams, Parma are undefeated in their last 7
  • Parma haven't been good this season, we know that but they have been on the wrong side of variance a lot this season conceding about 10 more goals than they should have.

Final word: Parma are showing signs of improvement and should have more than enough to avoid defeat here.

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