Both teams to score : 1.86 with Pinnacle - 2 units - (min 1.81)

France

  • Assuming France don't pick up any injuries or positive COVID cases they will be at full strength for this match
  • We can expect a front 3 of Mbappé - Benzema - Griezmann. This is what we saw when the French took on Wales in a warm up friendly, overall they looked good generating 3.4xG and winning the match 3-0. At the time of writing they are lining up the same way against Bulgaria
  • I don't think we can have many concerns regarding this team getting on the scoresheet. They've scored in 17 of their last 19 competitive games and now have Benzema to call up, early signs indicate his transition back into the starting XI won't be problematic
  • On paper they do look very strong defensively but let's look a little closer look at their games against teams currently in the Top 30...
  • Since their World Cup win in Russia they have faced 11 teams from FIFA's Top 30, from those 11 games they conceded at least one goal in 73%
  • In their two meetings with Germany they allowed a combined xGA of 3.11 (0-0 & 2-1 win)
  • In EC qualification their highest ranked opponent was Turkey and they conceded in both games allowing 1.86xGA from both games combined
  • There's no doubt that both teams are likely happy to take a draw here but for me there's too many question marks around both defences and the attacking talent on show should mean goals.

Germany

  • Germany will be playing this game in Munich with fans in the stands, as dire as some of their recent results have been I think they will have at least a goal in them here
  • In their warm up games they drew 1-1 with Denmark and beat Latvia 7-1. No point discussing the Latvia result but against Denmark I was impressed with the output, they got off 17 attempts generating 1.7xG all from open play.
  • Germany's last competitive matches came in the WCQ in March, they took on North Macedonia, Romania, and Iceland. They were humiliated by North Macedonia but again we can't fault their attacking output from those games (average 1.68 goals p90 1.78xG p90)
  • In their UNL games they only failed to score against Spain (They were missing key players, but also played poorly)
  • When playing on home soil they have scored at least once in every competitive game since their 0-0 with France in 2018. In that France game they got off 14 attempts generating 1.43xG.
  • Excluding that match we have to go all the way back to 2007 (vs Wales, ECQ) to find a competitive game on home soil when they failed to score
  • France may be the world champions but they have players in that backline that are error prone
  • Now, defensively, just like France I'd have my worries about Germany. Germany gave up 2.17 goals and 1.93xGA p90 in their UNL games against Ukraine, Switzerland and Spain
  • In EC qualification they gave up 1.24xGA per 90 despite only having one real test in their group (Netherlands)
  • In the games with the Netherlands they conceded 6 with 3.86xGA

Final word: Both teams are going to be very dangerous in attacking transitions, and both are far from water-tight in defence. BTTS makes the most sense for me.