Borussia Monchengladbach Over 1.5 team goals at 1.94 - 2 units

Frankfurt

  • Frankfurt were dominated by Marco Roses Gladbach last season being outscored 7-3 over the two games (xG 4.79-1.9 in Gladbach's favour)
  • We're 11 games into the 20/21 season and Frankfurt have won just 2 of 11 games, these came against Hertha Berlin and Hoffenheim about 2 months ago
  • From those games Frankfurt are allowing 1.73 goals per 90 mins
  • Frankfurt's string of decent results came to an end at the weekend as they were beaten 2-1 by Wolfsburg, this was a very one sided contest, if we take away the penalties Wolfsburg created 2.05xG to Frankfurt's 0.75
  • Frankfurt are currently a bottom 6 team in the Bundesliga for chances allowed so we can expect Gladbach to have chances in this game.
  • Frankfurt tend to get involved in high scoring games with Top 6 opponents, in their last 10 their games have averaged 3.9 goals per game (2.3 conceded per game)
  • Considering Gladbach's squad issues (more below) we can expect Frankfurt to have success of their own in front of goal
  • Frankfurt have scored in 20 of 22 home games and scored 2+ in 59% of those matches.

Gladbach

  • Gladbach are now through to the last 16 of the Champions League and can relax with their aggressive squad rotation for the Bundesliga. Here we can expect them to field their best available XI.
  • Gladbach's team news isn't ideal but their attack isn't affected thankfully. Yann Sommer (GK), Ramy Bensebaini, and Florian Neuhaus are expected to miss out
  • They should line up with Pléa and Thuram in this match, both were on the bench at the weekend
  • As you might imagine, Gladbach's goals per 90 with these players on the pitch is a lot higher. With Pléa 2.59 team goals per 90 while with Thuram a slightly higher average of 2.63 team goals per 90 (all competitions)
  • Gladbach have scored 2.12 goals per 90 this season across the Bundesliga and Champions League while posting an xG average of 1.84

Final word: Don't let Gladbach's recent Bundesliga form throw you off , they prioritised UCL and now it's time to to start gaining ground on the rest. I expect this to be a high scoring game with Gladbach netting at least twice.