Genoa can put 4 points between themselves and 18th placed Lecce with a win here. A win for the Rossoblù would effectively save their season and relegate Lecce in the process. This is their biggest game of the season and perhaps the standout fixture in Serie A today.

  • Despite their league position Genoa are a mid-table side when it comes to chance creation so I expect them to create plenty against Italy’s leakiest defence.
  • As mentioned previously, Lecce’s chances allowed (xGA) is off the charts, no team in Serie A comes close, and for those of you that have watched them this season will know they’re extremely error-prone and will commit a lot of men forward when trailing in matches.
  • Lecce rank 3rd worst for defensive errors leading to shots this season, surprisingly, Roma and Juventus the two clubs who are worse.
  • Lecce's GK (Gabriel) has been amazing too, had it not been for him their goals against (74 conceded) total could be even more embarrassing
  • The best-case scenario here is that Genoa take a lead, if that happens I would expect this to land with relative ease. Lecce on average go on to concede a further 2.93 goals when they concede first in matches.
  • On the road, Lecce have allowed 2.38 goals per 90 and 2.48xGA per 90
  • When these teams met back in December they played out a 2-2 but Genoa were the much better side despite getting two men sent off (xG 2.56-0.86 in Genoa’s favour)
  • Nehuén Paz is expected to start at CB for Lecce, he’s a clear weak link from a group of bad defenders. With Paz (536 mins) on the pitch Lecce allow on average 2.48xGA and 2.33 goals against
  • Of players with 1000+ mins, Genoa achieves their best goals per 90  average with Pandev and Pinamonti on the pitch. Both are expected to start upfront for the day
  • Under Davide Nicola, Genoa have only hosted 3 of the bottom 6 defences in the league (using xGA total) In those matches they beat Sassuolo 2-1, lost to Parma 1-4 but generated 2.31xG, and a 2-0 win over SPAL (2.81xG)

Final word:

This is a very favourable matchup, If Genoa can get their nose in front Lecce will leave more holes at the back and get caught out again. Ideally, that happens early and we get a high scoring game.

Genoa Over 1.5 team goals at 1.72 with Pinnacle - 2 units