BTTS: Yes at 1.9 with Bet365 - 1.5 units
- SPAL are effectively relegated (99%) and have no plan to sit back and defend, they along with Genoa will see this as a winnable game so we should get an open match
- Both teams are bottom tier when it comes to allowing opposition chances
- In their home games this season, Genoa have allowed 1.79 goals per 90 with an average xGA of 1.43
- In all competitions Home/Away Genoa have allowed 1.88 goals per game and 1.6 xGA per game
- SPAL have also been poor at the back with 1.74 goals conceded per game and 1.7xGA allowed per game
- Both teams have been particularly weak against the bottom half teams in the league. Genoa have given up 1.5 goals per game against the bottom tier, while SPAL have allowed 1.9 goals against per game.
- Under Davide Nicola, Genoa have kept just three clean sheets in 15 matches. Since the restart, they've kept none and conceded on average 2.6 per game. These include four conceded against Parma, two against Brescia, and two against Udinese (All of which have very similar xG numbers to SPAL)
- SPAL have scored in 5 of the 7 matches Di Biaggio has taken charge of with an average xG per match of 0.97
- Two of these matches had fairly low chance creation numbers (vs Napoli and Milan) but there's no shame in that. Both have been notably robust in defence lately.
- Genoa are expected to line up with a weak back 3 (Masiello, Soumaoro, and Biraschi). Soumaoro who hasn't featured much is a weak link with 1.83 goals conceded per 90 when on the pitch this season.
Verdict: Providing both teams keep 11 men on the pitch I see this as having a fantastic chance landing. I'd line this bet closer to 1.72-1.75