Ukraine Over 0.5 team goals at 1.71 with Pinnacle - 2.5 units (min 1.62)
Ukraine Over 1.5 team goals @ 4.00 with Bet365 - 0.5 unit (min 3.25)

Germany

  • Over the last calendar year Germany have allowed 1.54 xGA per 90, This trend of giving up a high amount of good goalscoring chances has been happening since the 2018 World Cup
  • It may also shock you to know that Germany have only kept clean sheets against Estonia, Northern Ireland, Belarus and France since the 2018 World Cup (competitive games)
  • During EC qualification Germany took on just one team inside the Top 50 of the FIFA rankings, that came against the Netherlands. They conceded 6 goals and gave up 4.00xGA
  • In this years UNL they have conceded in every game allowing 1.7xGA. In 2018's UNL they conceded in 3 of their 4 matches allowing on average 1.49xGA
  • In their last match with Switzerland they switched things up and put 4 at the back which the public had been calling for. Even with 4 at the back they looked completely out of sorts and allowed huge chances every time the Swiss got on the ball
  • The big news that should however make them even more vulnerable here is the loss of Joshua Kimmich who looks likely to be out for a few months at least (1 month at best)
  • Kimmich has played more minutes than any other player in the squad this year. With him on the pitch Germany allow just 0.71xGA per 90
  • Interestingly two of the other players who rank quite high for Germany's xGA team numbers are Süle, Klosterman and Neuer. Both Sule and Klosterman are not in the squad as they're carrying injuries too
  • It's uncertain how Germany will line up here but I reckon both Rudiger and Ginter start at the back, maybe Emre Can get's a look in. Either way they will be far from water tight

Ukraine

  • Ukraine were ravaged by COVID during the last International break which might be why the market is so low on them at the moment. However we shouldn't forget the progress this NT has made in recent years
  • Only in 2019 they topped their qualification group with Portugal and Serbia going unbeaten in the process
  • Ukraine's massively depleted team took on Germany in the last International break and managed to score while generating 1.14xG
  • Ukraine's squad will be a lot stronger for this break. Starting GK Pyatov, both starting CB's Matviyenko and Kryvtsov are back. Brazilian born Marlos and Junior Moraes will be available as will Man City's Zinchenko
  • Ukraine scored in every game in their 2019 UNL run generating 1.35xG per 90
  • They also managed 1.33xG in their EC qualification run that saw them score in every game bar the road trip to Portugal
  • In all competitions (excl friendlies) over the last 3 years Ukraine have only failed to score in their road trips with Portugal and Spain. You don't need me to tell you that both Spain and Portugal are among the toughest defences in Europe currently

Final word: These odds are way off in my opinion, Jogi Löw's days as Germany head coach are numbered. Expect Ukraine to keep it competitive and score at least once