Inter Draw no Bet (+0 Asian Handicap) at 1.75 with Bet Victor/Marathon (1.67 min) - 2 units

Gladbach

  • Gladbach are 2nd in the goalscoring charts after putting 10 past Shakhtar in their two matches. They have been overperforming though. Looking at their xG we can see they should have scored closer to 8 or 9 (8.44xG), if we remove penalties their xG total drops to 6.92
  • When these two last played Inter dominated and Gladbach scored with their two attempts on target (one was a penalty)
  • Gladbach's team news isn't ideal, they will be without Elvedi at CB ,Bensebaini at LB and Hoffman on the RW. All three played in the 2-2 with Inter and are regulars in the starting XI
  • Tony Jantschke who rarely gets a run out these days is expected to start at CB while 35 year old Oscar Wendt will start at LB. Gladbach have conceded on average 1.67 goals per 90 with Tony Jantschke on the pitch this season. Interestingly, Gladbach have never kept a clean sheet in Europe when Jantschke plays more than 60 mins
  • Presently Gladbach are massively outperforming their xG and xGA and I think they'll be dragged back to earth here as Inter try to claw themselves back into contention for qualification
  • Getting back to that last Inter game, Inter put up 2.35xG and got off 14 attempts while dominating possession. Today however they should line up even stronger than they did in that first match with both Lukaku and Lautaro starting from the first minute.
  • Gladbach have not won a single game in their last 6 against teams from Top 5 leagues in the UCL, from these games they have conceded in every match and conceded 2+ in 83%

Inter

  • Inter rebounded nicely from last week's disaster against Real Madrid, the Nerazzurri brushed aside high flying Sassuolo with ease winning 3-0. They did so by resting key man Lukaku too
  • Lukaku caused Gladbach all kinds of problems in the last match, so considering Gladbach's personnel problems we can expect another big performance. Lukaku scored a brace and and generated 1.43xG in the first meeting.
  • It's understandable that the market is a bit low on Inter here, a lot of people were let down in the Real Madrid game and we can't put all the blame on Vidal either, prior to the red card Real Madrid were the better team and were in control.
  • However, It's important to remember that this was just one game, looking at Inter's season there's still a lot of reasons to like them in this match-up
  • Inter's team news isn't perfect either. Hakimi and Vidal will miss out, the latter is probably a good thing. Darmian will stand in for Hakimi, although Inter's goal and xG production is good with Hakimi they are defensively better with Darmian on the pitch.

Final word: I've taken the draw no bet option here as Gladbach will happily take the draw here and I just can't envision them taking 3 points unless we see Inter go into a complete collapse again.