Hellas Verona

Serie A’s surprise package has been Hellas Verona, they currently sit 8th and although qualification to Europe isn’t a realistic possibility, a mid-table finish is guaranteed so we should expect them to play to win here against a very beatable opponent

  • One of the features of Verona’s season has been how difficult they are to break down, particularly at home. Currently, only Juve, Inter, and Atalanta have been better defensively
  • When playing at home against teams in the bottom half of the table (Cagliari 12th) Verona are W5 D3 L2 with 13 scored and 6 conceded. Again defensively these are some of the best numbers in the league
  • In terms of team news they will be at full strength as they welcome back Faroni at RB
  • When the sides met earlier in the season they played out a 2-2 in an even contest (xG 2.14-2.2)
  • Verona have scored 2+ goals and won the xG in each of their last 4 home games. These include a 2-1 win over Champions Juve. There was nothing fortunate about that win either, Juve were outplayed.

Cagliari

Cagliari started the season spectacularly but the wheels have well and truly fell off and the new manager acquisition of Walter Zenga doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

  • Zenga has a 1.14 points per game average when managing in Serie A, most of his success came over a decade ago with Catania. The former Italian international has failed to hold down a job for more than 6 months since leaving the middle east (Managed Al-Nasr and Al-Jazira)
  • Cagliari’s team news isn’t positive either. They will be without Nainggolan (5 goals 6 assists) and top goalscorer Joao Pedro (17 goals 2 assists)
  • No player impacts Cagliari’s team success more than Pedro his absence will be felt even more than Nainggolan's
  • Despite their league position (12th) Cagliari are the 5th worst defence in the league in terms of chances allowed
  • With a paltry 28.1xG generated this season their attack ranks 4th worst for chances created. The fact they’ve scored 41 from this total indicates a regression to the mean eventually.
  • If we exclude penalties, they’re the 2nd worst in the league at creating chances

Hellas Verona to win at 2.15 with Bwin - 1.5 units