Stuttgart Over 1.5 team goals at 2.05 (Min 1.91) - 2 units
  • Hoffenheim have been struck again with COVID19 cases, Bičakčić, Stafylidis, Rudy, Vogt, Belfodil, Larsen, Dabbur, Adamyan, and Skov are all set to miss out.
  • Samassekou (Mali), Adams (Ghana), Bebou (Togo) and Akpoguma (Nigeria) were all involved in AFCON duty playing in Sub-Saharan Africa, so we don't know how ready they'll be either.
  • Excluding the team news, Hoffenheim have still been one of the weakest teams in the league at preventing opposition chances. Currently, they rank 4th worst. Only Mainz, Schalke, and Arminia have been worse.
  • Hoffenheim have played six teams in the top half of the table this season (Stuttgart 7th) from these 6 games they have allowed on average 2.16xGA per game. Their best performance came against Werder Bremen when they restricted them to just 0.23xG, Werder rank 3rd worst for non-penalty xG so not that significant in my opinion

Stuttgart

  • Stuttgart are currently sitting in 7th after a bright start to the season. Since achieving promotion they have lost just 1 of their 7 matches and have scored at least once in every match (2+ in 57%)
  • Their average xG for the season thus far is a healthy 1.71
  • From their three matches with teams that rank in the bottom 5 for chances allowed (Freiburg, Schalke, and Mainz) we see this average xG jump to 2.47. Remember Hoffenheim are currently 4th worst in the league for xGA
  • Stuttgart were more or less unaffected by the International break, the exception being  Nicolás Gonzalez (Argentina) who started both matches for Argentina and score in both

Final word: Hoffenheim's problems are huge here, expect the visitors to continue their high flying season and come away with something.