Inter Milan -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.69 with Pinnacle - 2 units

Inter

  • Inter come into this game fully rested after the Xmas break with a fully fit squad for Antonio Conte to choose from.
  • Expected XI: Samir, Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni, Hakimi, Barella, Brozovic, Vidal, Young, Lautaro, Lukaku
  • With Milan slipping up in their last few games this weekend will be a chance for the Nerazzurri to make top spot their own
  • Inter's home form has been excellent particularly in the attacking third with 2.43 goals scored per 90 mins with 2.3xG generated per 90
  • Last time out Inter cost us the same bet was they hosted Spezia, Spezia are performing at a much higher level than Crotone and were pretty much outclassed and managed just one shot on target (turned out to be 94th min goal)
  • Inter have won 9 of their last 10 home matches against teams in the bottom 6 (Crotone 19th) with 29 goals scored and 9 conceded
  • When hosting newly promoted teams, Inter have won 9 of their last 10 with 26 goals scored and only 4 conceded
  • Crotone along with Genoa are the worst attack in the league so chances should be few and far between for the visitors
  • If we take away Crotone's 4 converted penalties their open play numbers start to look pretty grim

Crotone

  • Crotone are the worst team in Italy currently, as mentioned above if we take away their penalties this season things look very bad (9.37 non penalty xG) If I'm not mistaken there are only a couple of clubs in Europe with worse attacking numbers than these (WBA, Elche, and Arminia Bielefeld)
  • Crotone's away schedule has been surprisingly easy this season, the highest ranked team they've faced has been Sassuolo and they beat them comfortably 4-1
  • This trip to Milan probably represents their toughest match of the season.
  • They have hosted a few top teams this season (Milan, Juve, Lazio, Atalanta, Napoli) and for the most part they've been outclassed
  • From those 5 matches they took one point off a depleted Juve side who had a man sent off early in the 2nd half
  • Overall they generated an average of 0.44 xG from open play in these games while conceding 2.24 xGA
  • I would be shocked if Inter at home don't do more damage than the others if I'm being honest

Final word: Inter's sole focus now is winning their first Scudetto in over 10 years, generally they don't slip up in these types of games, expect a dominant display.