The format for the Europa League has changed due to the COVID crisis so this will be one leg only and played at a neutral venue in Germany (Schalke's home ground)

Inter

  • Although Inter's title challenge faded after the lockdown, they did end the season extremely strong capping it off with two 2-0 wins over top opposition (Napoli and Atalanta)
  • Even with heavy rotation from Conte we saw impressive goal and xG numbers since the restart (Chance creation: 2.27xG per 90 & 2.46 goals per 90)
  • Conte will also have no key players missing through injury or suspension. With the 5 sub rule in effect here they will be at an advantage with such a deep squad
  • Inter can definitely be held guilty for not taking the European competitions that seriously this season. The title challenge was the focus and you can't blame Inter or Conte for that. However the league is over now and European silverware is now the focus.
  • The last time Inter won any silverware was back in 2010-11 (Coppa Italia)
  • Across their 8 European games this season, Inter have only lost the xG battle once this season and that came away to Dortmund (3-2 loss) even in their matches against Barca they created the bigger chances and were unfortunate to lose.
  • They've also deepened their squad since the bulk of those games were played and now have a performing Alexis Sánchez to call upon if needed.
  • Alexis has been a huge contributor to Inter's success in the final 3rd lately. With him in the team we're seeing Inter generate 3.01 goals per 90 and 2.25xG

Getafe

  • Getafe are an intense side that press very well (lowest PPDA in LaLiga) but their style of play is predictable and their one dimensional attack has seen them exposed against the better sides in LaLiga this season. (Lost every match against the Top 4)
  • PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action) is a metric that can quantify the extent and aggression of high presses
  • From that sample of 8 games Getafe scored one goal and conceded 16
  • Getafe tend to have success by pressing very high up the pitch and creating numerical superiority in these phases. However if teams are relatively good at resisting the press (Inter are) in can leave them very vulnerable
  • Getafe ended their season in 8th place after being in contention for a Top 4 / Top 6 finish. Since the restart they've been extremely poor, they played 11 games and won just once.
  • Getafe's average xG was 0.94 while they had an average xGA of 1.31
  • Only two teams from this 11 game sample can be compared to Inter Milan (Atletico and Real Madrid) They're average xG difference from these games was -1.05xGD
  • Getafe also finished up their league two weeks ago, in terms of match sharpness Inter should have an edge.

Inter to win at 1.75 with Bet365 - 2 units