Inter

  • Inter were dominant against Leverkusen in the last round. The Nerazzurri scored twice and generated a massive 2.79xG and had numerous penalty decisions overturned. So far in Europe, I think it was their most complete performance.
  • At the back they were excellent too allowing just 0.59xG against a very dangerous side
  • Overall in the UEL this season their xG differential is +1.22 and their goal differential p90 is +1.5
  • Overall in their European games Inter have been impressive posting 1.8 goals per game and 1.74xG per game
  • Considering they played high level opposition like Barca x 2, BVB x2, Slavia x 2, Getafe, and Leverkusen we should expect them to replicate these numbers tonight.

Shakhtar

  • Shakhtar won’t be that strong in defence for this game. Ismaily and Khochlava will both miss out meaning a CB pairing of Bondar and Kryvtsov
  • Bondar is quite small for CB and hasn’t played a single game in Europe this season. I feel he could be a weak link and I feel Lukaku can have a lot of success bullying him as he did Tapsoba against Leverkusen
  • Shakhtar have a negative goal ratio and xG differential in Europe this season. What’s most worrying is that they’ve conceded 2 goals per 90 along with 1.87xGA
  • The Miners have kept just one clean sheet in Europe since the beginning of 2017. That came against a limp Wolfsburg side in the R16
  • Shakhtar's overall defensive numbers against teams from Top 5 leagues is staggerringly bad. Over the last two seasons they have allowed 2.24 goals against abs 1.96xGA
  • Against a similar opponent in Europe (Atalanta)  Shakhtar gave up an average of 2.76xGA across their two matches (this seasons UCL group phase)

Final word: Shakhtar have had two favourable match-ups in the R16 (Wolfsburg) and QF (Basel). Inter are a different level and I feel with Silverware being within touching distance they will leave everything on the pitch tonight. Inter are expected to line-up full strength and will have a deep bench to call upon if needed.

Inter to win in normal time @ 1.61 with Unibet - 2 units