Ferencvaros over 0.5 team goals at 2.56 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min 2.3)

Juventus

  • Juventus are coming off their best game of the season against Cagliari, they restricted them to almost nothing and both Demiral and de Ligt had excellent games
  • However this morning it was revealed that Demiral has injured himself and will be out for 10 days. Bonucci still needs 15 days of recovery while Chiellini will need 25 days of recovery
  • As we know Danilo can play CB but he has played a lot of mins for club and country this season and is just returning from International duty. Juve have also conceded in 4 of 5 competitive matches with Danilo at CB
  • Cuadrado at RB is also in that category, he has a lot of minutes in his legs after International duty with Colombia and another full 90 against Cagliari
  • In the UCL this season we have seen Juve defeat Dynamo in Kyiv, get destroyed by Barcelona, and then blow away Ferencvaros in Hungary.
  • From those games however, they have given up on average 1.34xG and allowed on average 11 attempts on their goal
  • In the match in Hungary, Ferencvaros generated 1.51xG (all from open play)
  • It's easy for our judgement to be clouded by recency bias (Cagliari result) but Juventus have only kept 3 clean sheets in all competitions this season (Cagliari, Dynamo, and Sampdoria) and are allowing a relatively high xGA by their standards (1.19)
  • When we factor in Juve have one fit CB for this game this price is way off in my opinion. Ferencváros have nothing to fear as nothing is expected of them.
  • Wholesale changes are expect by Juve too, this is a very winnable game so expect fringe players to make the starting XI

Ferencváros

  • Ferencváros have scored in all of their UCL group games this season generating on average 1.27xG per 90 mins. They're also getting off a respectable 11 attempts on goal on average.
  • From their 5 UCL qualification games they scored 1.8 goals per game (Djurgårdens, Celtic, Molde, Dinamo)
  • From their 18 matches in all competitions this season they have only failed to score in one. That came against Molde (2nd leg) They were leading on away goals so a different dynamic to consider there.
  • Ferencváros have an excellent press and fast counter attacks they can and will create chances against a weakened Juve XI.