Over 1.5 Inter Milan goals at 2.21 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min 2.1)

Juventus

  • Juventus are expected to line-up with de Ligt and Demiral at CB, both were rested at the weekend but did play the first leg
  • Juventus were slightly fortunate in that game, Inter missed two huge chances to equalise late on (Darmian+ Alexis chances)
  • Not taking anything away from Juve in that first leg but they scored off a defensive/GK error and a penalty, they created very little outside of these chances. (open play chances totaled 0.39xG). As Conte said in the post match interview, those goals were both gifted to Juve.
  • Looking at both meetings this season, we can see Juve have been second best. The total xG for both games comes to 3.22-1.9 in Inter's favour (shot count 28-17)
  • Let's examine how well Juve have been performing against the top sides in Italy this season.
  • vs Roma they won 2-0 despite only registering 0.6xG and allowing 1.00xGA. In that game they registered just 4 attempts on goal while allowing 12
  • In their last league game with Inter they dominated like they haven't been in years, the 2-0 was justified.
  • Against Milan they won 3-1 despite it being an evenly fought contest (xG 1.95-1.89 in Milan's favour) Juve played well and took their chances but at the other end they were fortunate not to concede more than once. Worth noting as well that Milan were far from their strongest in that match, (without Bennacer, Tonali, Zlatan, Saelemaekers, Rebic)
  • Prior to that we saw a 1-1 with Atalanta in a fairly even contest
  • vs Lazio (No Immobile) we got another 1-1 in a close contest (xG 1.81-1.22)
  • And then finally at the beginning of the season another draw, this time coming in the form of a 2-2 with Roma (xG 1.54-2.22 in Roma's favour)
  • Bottom line here is that Juventus haven't been that dominant against the top teams in Italy and tonight they're coming up against the best team in the country
  • Looking at their season as a whole they have been worse defensively than their results suggest, they're allowing 1.12xGA per 90 across all competitions but only conceding 0.83
  • 43 year old Buffon will start for Juve tonight, he's played 7 games domestically this season and only kept clean sheets against weak opposition (SPAL, Parma and Cagliari). In the 1st leg he almost cost his team on a few occasions, he's legend but still a liability in my eyes

Inter

  • Inter will be welcoming back Lukaku to their attack, he was spared in the first leg. Lukaku leads the squad for goal involvements across all competitions with 0.99 per 90 so we can expect more of a threat from Inter this leg.
  • Inter score on average (all comps) 2.16 goals per game with Lukaku and generate 1.97xG per 90
  • Eriksen is also expected to start in place of Vidal too, he's seen some confidence return so I see it as a positive move.
  • Conte stated after the first leg that they will absolutely have to travel to Turin and score at least two goals (they trail 2-1 from the first leg)
  • Inter played on Friday last (v Fiorentina) so will have an extra days rest/preparation
  • Inter have been incredibly consistent with their chance creation in all comps this season (average 2.2) with 2.1 goals per 90
  • Even when we filter road games we see almost identical numbers (1.93 goals per 90 with 2.24xG per 90)

NB: The Inter to win line is also very playable but I prefer to side with team total goals.