Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.9 with Bet365 - 2 units (min 1.83)

Juventus

  • Juve have Porto mid-week and are expected to start with a back 3 of Danilo - Demiral - Sandro
  • de Ligt was injured mid-week and won't be risked in this game, he should be available for Porto.
  • In attack Juve should have no issues, Cuadrado and Chiesa on the flanks, McKennie, Ramsey, and Rabiot in CM with Ronaldo and Kulusevski in attack
  • Bernardeschi who had a marvelous game last time out could also be an option
  • Domestically, Juve's output is fantastic at home, they're putting up 17.47 shots, 2.2 goals, and 2.33 xG per 90
  • Since their shock 3-0 loss to Fiorentina (early red card) Juve have went on to score 2+ goals in every home game. 2.83 goals / 2.61xG
  • When hosting top 6 sides Juve have scored 2.2 goals per game while conceding 1.2 per game (last 10)
  • When the two met earlier in the season they played out a 1-1 in Rome but there are a few factors to consider, Lazio were without Immobile and Lazzari which hurt their attacking numbers hugely
  • Juventus were not at their strongest either, they had to do without de Ligt, Danilo, Sandro, Ramsey, Arthur, and Chiesa
  • The fact we might see Ramsey start is good for goals in my opinion and it was the same last season. With the Welshman on the pitch Juve average 2.41xG per 90, no player in the Juve squad has a higher ratio (min 500 mins), Juve also allow their highest xGA with him on the pitch (1.1 per 90)
  • As I touched on mid-week too, de Ligt is Juve's best CB, they achieve their best xGA and goals against with him, his loss here will make them weaker in defence.
  • Expected XI: Woj, Danilo, Demiral, Sandro, Cuadrado, Ramsey, Rabiot, McKennie, Chiesa, Kuluseveski, Ronaldo

Lazio

  • Lazio are expected to reshuffle in defence again thank to the calamitous performance from Patric recently. Inzaghi is believed to be desperate enough to start Marusic at CB with Acerbi and Hoedt
  • The only match in which Marusic has played at CB this season was against Bayern (65 mins) and we all know how that game went
  • In fairness to Inzaghi he probably is a better option than Patric right now but still not ideal. Hoedt who I've talked about before is a liability too. Lazio are allowing 1.59 goals against per 90 with the Dutchman
  • 35 year old Senad Lulic will step in for the injured Lazzari at RWB which is a huge downgrade, they will be vulnerable down that flank. (he hasn't played 90 mins in over year)
  • We talked about Juve's attacking prowess this season but Lazio should be able to add to the goal line here too, they're putting up 1.72xG per 90 in the league and scoring at a rate of 1.58 per 90
  • When taking on Top 6 opposition they have also scored 17 in their last 10 while conceding 12
  • Considering the losses of de Ligt, Bonucci, Chiellini I'll be stunned if Lazio don't manage to register at least one goal here.
  • Lazio's last three matches on the road to top 6 opposition has seen the goals flow, against Inter they lost 3-1 with a total xG count of 4.28, against Atalanta they won 3-1 with a total xG count of 3.7, against Milan they lost 3-2 with a total xG count of 3.25