Under 2.5 Total Goals at 2.21 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min odds 2.05)

Juventus

  • Juve are coming into this game off the back of a 2-2 with Torino, pressure is mounting on Pirlo as the probabilities for Juventus missing out on top 4 are starting to become a real possibility.
  • Despite that result, Juventus still rank 1st for goals against and xGA so I don't expect them to give too much away to Napoli
  • Domestically at home they've only allowed 0.71 goals against per 90 with 1.04xGA
  • When Juve travelled to Naples back in February they did so against a totally depleted Napoli team and still managed to lose 0-1. Napoli did a great job of restricting big chances in that game, although Juve got off 22 attempts almost none were big chances.
  • Prior to that Napoli restricted Juventus to just 0.46xGA in the Coppa Italia Final back in June (0-0 after 90')
  • I'm not going to talk too much about Juventus here as it's Napoli's game plan that should lead to a low scoring cagey affair.

Napoli

  • Napoli are full strength for this game and have their best CB pairing of Koulibaly and Manolas in line to start
  • With their captain on the pitch Napoli only allow 0.81 goals against p90 with 0.89xGA
  • Gatusso tends to play very conservative in these games, just looking at their last 10 against top 6 opponents we can see just 8 goals conceded
  • If we filter that to road games, we can see Napoli's last 10 against top 6 teams have averaged just 1.8 goals a game.
  • Napoli have turned their season around and are now in contention of a top 4 finish. From the looks of it Juve, AC Milan, Napoli, and Lazio are going to have to fight for UCL spots.
  • Dropping points here for Napoli can't be an option so I don't expect Napoli to give very much away.