Spezia Over 0.5 team goals at 1.92 with Pinnacle (Min 1.82)

Juventus

  • Juventus will still be without Cuadrado, Arthur, Bonucci, Chiellini and Dybala for this match. As of right now Juventus are expected to line up with Danilo, de Ligt, and Demiral in their back 3 with Sandro and Chiesa on the flanks.
  • Considering Juventus have Lazio at the weekend and then Porto mid-week they will probably use this match to rotate their XI more than we expect.
  • At the weekend Juventus struggled against Verona, they conceded once, gave up 13 attempts on their goal and allowed 0.83xGA. Spezia like Verona are very aggressive with their press and will cause problems if Juve aren't at their best.
  • Questions are once again being asked about Pirlo's ability to manage the team and the pressure appears to be mounting, the games played over the next 7 days could determine his future at the club.
  • Juventus have conceded 1.3 goals per game in their last 10 with teams in the bottom 6, this could point towards lower motivation when playing weaker sides.
  • When the two met back in November, Spezia lost (1-4) but managed to get on the scoresheet getting off 16 attempts on goal and generating 1.02xG. It's fair to say Spezia have improved since then too.
  • From their last 22 games in the league Juventus have only managed 6 clean sheets

Spezia

  • Spezia will be welcoming back their top goalscorer Nzola to the front 3, Nzola is scoring at a rate of 0.73 goals per 90 in Serie A this season and is putting up a healthy xG average too (0.56)
  • Spezia who have performed wonderfully in the face of huge amounts of injuries actually have a pretty strong squad for this game, The only noticeable absentee is Pobega
  • Italiano's preferred mid-field is Maggiore, Ricci, and Estevez, all three are in line to start this game.
  • Spezia are scoring at a rate of 1.33 goals per 90 and putting up an average xG of 1.3 per 90
  • With Nzola on the pitch this xG goes slightly higher (1.42), they've also scored at least once in 8 of the last 9 games he's featured in.
  • Since being promoted Spezia have had decent success against the Top 6
  • Most recently they beat Milan 2-0 (2.26xG), they put 3 goals past Roma (xG 1.46), they put 2 past Napoli (1.93xG), scored once against Inter (0.82xG), and scored once against Lazio (1.73xG)

Final word: The market seems to be underestimating the threat Spezia pose, The team total is the obvious play at these odds but I wouldn't put anyone off siding with BTTS or the Over