Rennes +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.49 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units (min 2.3)
Rennes Over 1.5 team goals at 3.5 with Unibet/888/10bet (min 3.3) - 1 unit

Rennes

  • Rennes will be able to field their best XI with Eduardo Camavinga returning after his 3 week layoff
  • He returned for Rennes at the weekend (vs Bordeaux), a game they lost 0-1 but arguably didn't deserve to. (xG 1.44-0.49)
  • Across all competitions Rennes have put up 1.71xG per home game this season. Their expected goal difference per 90 mins at home is also a very healthy +0.86 (For context they're better numbers than PSG)
  • Rennes who have picked up just 1 point so far need to approach this game in ambitious fashion. Anything less than a win here will almost certainly mean they don't qualify. (Currently they have a 2% chance to make the last 16)
  • Back to Camavinga, it's not just hype. Looking at the teams xG success overall he has the biggest influence on the team with Rennes averaging 1.59xG with him on the pitch
  • Rennes did get pumped 3-0 at Stamford bridge but a couple of things are of note here an early Red card for Rennes and two penalties for Chelsea. Prior to the Red card (41') Chelsea had created almost nothing from open play
  • Domestically Rennes have been one of the better sides in the league at restricting opposition chances (3rd best)

Chelsea

  • Chelsea seem a little overrated at these odds, the Blues have scored 4 of their 7 UCL goals from the penalty spot and have been fortunate enough to have faced a massively depleted Krasnodar who more than 50% of their goals came from.
  • Away from the Bridge we've seen Chelsea take on one top team this season, that was against Man Utd when they drew 0-0 and put up 0.25xG with two attempts on target (Other teams faced, Brighton, West Brom, Krasnodar, Burnley, and Newcastle)
  • Chelsea unlike Rennes had a huge % of their first team on International duty (16 of the 1st squad by my count)
  • The XI that took the field against Newcastle will probably take the field here. There has been some talk that Timo Werner could be rested with Hudson-Odoi starting.
  • Werner has played more mins than anyone at Chelsea this season and he played every minute during the International break (yes even the friendly with the Czech's)

Final word: There's no way in my mind Chelsea deserve this price tag away from home. Expect a competitive game with Rennes avoiding defeat