Latvia’s FIFA World ranking is the worst it’s ever been only 5 teams in Europe rank worse. Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Gibraltar, and San Marino
In the last 3 years we’ve seen them beat Estonia in the Baltic Cup and Austria in their last competitive game
On that Austria game, they were very much 2nd best, Austria got off 21 attempts on goal, while generating 2.06 xG. Latvia scored from a set-piece that wasn’t adequately cleared by the Austrians.
Latvia and Andorra met twice in the UEFA Nations League last time out and both matches were grim. The first was a 0-0 with a total xG of 0.74 (both teams combined) The 2nd meeting was more of the same, another 0-0 with 0.43xG between both
Since those last few meetings, Andorra have overpassed Latvia in the rankings.
In their ECQ campaign, they put in respectable performances with their biggest loss only being 3-0 to the World Champions France.
Andorra know their strength and that means they’ll play in a narrow low block and shoot on sight (usually from about 30 yards out). For most of the match all 10 outfield players will behind ball with Andorra trying their luck on the counter
In that group phase they took on Moldova who we can say are now on the same level as Latvia. From both of those games, we saw again really low chance creation numbers on either side. 0.68xG average per match
It’s important to remember as well that Andorra tend never to deviate from their 4-4-2 low block even when losing. They’re extremely rigid in their approach and who can blame them. Their overperforming for a nation of 77,000 people
Andorra will be without 40-year-old veteran Ildefons Lima at CB but the defenders named all have plenty of experience. Emili Garcia and Max Llovera should partner at CB as they have recently. Between them have 80 caps so I’m not too worried.
What they lack in talent they will make up for in experience. The average number of caps for the players named in the squad is 36 caps.
Back to Latvia, it’s hard to see where the goals will come from. From the attackers named in the squad, they have 6 goals between them in 60 matches
Under 2.5 Total Goals at 1.53 with Bet365 - 2 units
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