Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8 with Betfair SB - 2 units (min 1.73)

*posted 15.09 to Telegram

Lazio

  • Lazio who were barely able to rotate their usual XI were a mess against newly-promoted Spezia at the weekend and didn't deserve the win; they gave up countless good chances in what has become commonplace this season.
  • Lazio have recorded just two clean sheets this season; they came against weak opposition in Crotone and Cagliari
  • So far in Serie A, we've seen Lazio games average 3.3 goals per game and 3.07xG
  • Lazio will once again re-shuffle their back 3 here again; we'll likely see Acerbi who has played an absurd amount of mins for club and country already this season, Luiz Felipe (1.92xGA per 90 when on the pitch) and the newly signed Hoedt who has shown signs of improvement but is still far from being reliable.
  • Every Lazio game in this years UCL campaign has seen both teams scoring with an average of 2.8 goals and 2.91xG
  • Their last match with Brugge ended 1-1 (3.63 total xG), but there was no shortage of action at both ends. For those that don't remember this was the game Lazio had to play during a COVID outbreak, they didn't have Immobile, or Luis Alberto so were severely blunted in attack
  • One important point from that game was that even when Lazio were sitting deep (after 0-1), they still couldn't prevent Brugge from creating good chances.
  • As we know, Lazio only need a draw here, but they should know that they can't rely on their defence to restrict Brugge effectively. Inzaghi will plan to take all three points in my opinion

Brugge

  • Nothing less than a win will suffice for the Belgians, they trail Lazio by two points heading into the final group game.
  • Brugge have a clean bill of health so should be confident of pushing Lazio , they'll take a lot of belief from that first leg where they had a lot of success going forward
  • Brugge are better in attack then their goal count shows, so far in this group stage their xG per 90 is 1.65 per 90 mins
  • All Brugge's games in the UCL bar the one I mentioned above have had Over 2.5 goals
  • Brugge have played 11 UCL group games since the start of last season and only kept clean sheets in two, Galatasaray (Gala scored once in 6 games) last season and Zenit (worst xG in competition) this season
  • The average goal count from games with teams from Top 5 leagues were 3.15 goals per game
  • Expected Starting XI: Mignolet; Mata, Mechele, Kossounou, Ricca; Vormer, Balanta, Vanaken; Dennis, De Ketelaere, Lang

Final word: The game dynamics (winner takes all) should mean a high paced game with plenty of chances at either end