• Cagliari look like a new team under Zenga, they are now a clear "defence first" team, and I don't expect them to play too adventurous here either.
  • With Zenga at the helm for Cagliari, we've seen their games average 2 goals per game. Only one of their matches (4-2 with Torino) went Over 3.5 goals. The xG however in that game paints a different picture (only 2.09 total xG from open play)
  • In terms of xG games under Zenga have averaged 2.2 total xG per match so these low scoring games aren't just by chance.
  • Even against a red hot attack like Sassuolo, we saw them frustrate their opponents into creating just 0.39 xG with 2 shots on target (Cagliari also had a man sent off early in the 2nd half)
  • Lazio, as most of you are aware, are not the team they were pre-lockdown. Goals and chances have dried up massively. They'll also have to do without one of the best creative players in the league Luis Alberto
  • Lazio have failed to score more than once in all their last five matches, and they came against defences far worse than Cagliari's
  • From those matches they generated on average 0.96xG per match
  • Lazio don't have depth in a lot of positions and Inzaghi continues to overwork his players in my opinion. For this match we shouldn't see any wholesale changes
  • As mentioned above, Luis Alberto is a loss; he has four times the amount of assists per 90 than any other midfielder (SMS)
  • Cagliari are also at loss which we mentioned last week, Nainggolan has a big impact on Cagliari's overall team xG and he won't be available
  • Rome is set to be hot and sticky for this game, something that will slow down the pace even further. Players are not used to playing in conditions, and we've seen how that can take effect, especially on the warmer days.


Under 3.5 Total Goals at 1.61 with Bet365 - 2 units (posted earlier to Telegram)