Both teams to score: Yes at 1.94 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min 1.82)

Lazio

  • Lazio are coming off three consecutive defeats, and all the momentum they had seems to have disappeared. In those three games (Juve, Bologna, & Bayern), they gave up 9 goals, and overall looked quite unorganised at the back.
  • They've kept just two clean sheets in their last 10; those came against Sampdoria (1.07xGA) and Cagliari (0.75xGA)
  • Across all competitions, they are giving up 1.5 goals per 90 with 1.46xGA.
  • From their 34 matches in all competitions this season, Lazio have kept a clean sheet in just 20.5%
  • Lazio are expected to line-up with a back three of Patric - Acerbi - Radu. There has been lots of chopping and changing lately, but one thing that has stood out are the performances of Patric; with him they are conceding 1.88 goals per 90.
  • CB's Musacchio and Hoedt are expected to start from the bench.
  • Elsewhere starting RWB Lazzari is still injured. Fares and Marušić will be on the flanks.
  • There's not too much else to add here; Lazio haven't been good enough defensively to warrant this price on their opponents not to score.

Crotone

  • Crotone are coming off a dominant win over Torino in which they scored 4 goals and generated 3.65xG
  • Adam Ounas who arrived from Cagliari in January appears to have had a positive impact on their attacking output. He's been playing off top goalscorer Simy (10 league goals) and so far so good.
  • Considering their 95% chance of relegation this season it would make no sense to play too conservatively here, sitting back for the entirety won't end well.
  • Ounas, Simy, and Messias who all have the highest goal contributions per 90 are in line to start the game, personally I feel there's a lot of physicality to Crotone's attack which can cause problems for Lazio's backline
  • Crotone have struggled a lot against teams with a high PPDA (Atalanta, Sassuolo, Bologna, Samp, Juve, Milan etc) I won't list the results here but a quick glance will give you an idea
  • Lazio are more mid-table/bottom tier when it comes to PPDA. (Although PPDA can't measure the quality of the pressing I think it gives us an idea of teams better suited to Crotone's style of play).
  • Crotone did lose 2-0 in this fixture earlier in the season but they did put up 0.79xG with 11 attempts. The pitch was also waterlogged which didn't make things any easier.

Final word: Lazio have had the wind knocked out of them in recent weeks and while Crotone may not take anything from this game  they should see plenty of chances fall their way.