Lazio +0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 with Betsafe- 1.5 units (Min 1.75)
Lazio Over 1.5 team goals @2.35 with Pinnacle - 1.5 unit (Min 2.1)

Lazio

  • Lazio are coming off a horrendous 3-0 defeat to Sampdoria at the weekend and a 4-1 thrashing by Atalanta a few weeks ago, it hasn’t been the best start for Inzaghi but I feel there are more than enough reasons to be optimistic of a positive start here
  • Yes they did concede 7 in these matches but they’ve been on the wrong side of variance with an xGA total almost half of that (currently 5th best in league and preventing chances)
  • Lazio are still the 5th best chance creators (8.18xG) in Serie A this season too, they just haven’t gotten a good rub at the other side of the pitch either
  • Here I expect possibly their best XI or close to it. The only real question mark now is if Strakosha will be favoured ahead of Pepe Reina in goal (Acerbi, Leiva, Luis Alberto, SMS, and Immobile are all guaranteed to start)
  • Immobile who was suspended for their last game will be a 100% fit/rested for this game
  • Lazio have been incredibly consistent at home for quite a while and even saw that this season against Inter when they were reduced to 10 men and almost went on to win (finished 1-1, xG1.74-1.3 in Lazio's favour)
  • In 19/20 for home games in Serie A we saw +1.53 (+1.06xGD) goal difference per 90 with only two losses, those losses both came off an injury-hit thin squad + Their title challenge ran out of steam at that stage (losses to Milan and Sassuolo)
  • From those games they scored 2+ in 74% of their games.

BVB

  • Dortmund do have experience in this competition but away from the Westfalenstadion, it’s never as glamorous for them especially in Europe
  • From their 4 road games in Europe last season we saw 0.75 goals per 90 and 0.87xG per 90. The only game they didn’t lose was the 0-2 over Slavia Prague
  • Under Lucien Favre Dortmund have only managed 3 wins on the road, these came against Slavia Prague, Monaco (Thierry Henry managed) and Brugge
  • Dortmund are still without Zagadou and Akanji at CB who are Favre’s two other starters along with Hummels.
  • 35-year-old full-back Łukasz Piszczek was a makeshift CB at the weekend but got injured (eye), he’s a doubt to start here and so Favre will have another tough choice with selecting his defence.
  • There’s a chance Thomas Delaney/Thomas Meunier, Mats Hummels, and Emre Can form the back 3
  • Favre also mentioned today that he cannot rely on Haland as he may not be fit enough having played a lot of minutes with the Norwegian NT during the international break (He did play 30 mins this weekend)