Verona +0 Asian Handicap (Draw no Bet) at 2.08 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min 2.00)

Torino

  • Torino had an impressive 3-0 win over Parma at the weekend, but in truth, they still looked shaky at the back against one of the worst teams in the league (Parma are the lowest scorers in the league)
  • The Parma game was a fairly even contest; both teams put up almost identical shot and xG numbers (13 attempts each, xG 1.37-1.36)
  • That was only Torino's 2nd clean sheet in their last 20 Serie A games; the other came against Crotone.
  • Looking at the bigger picture, Torino are still a bottom tier team this season when it comes to defending; they rank 6th worst for chances allowed and 2nd worst for goals against
  • Going forward we can also say they're bottom tier despite the 25 goals scored this season, with 18.5xG they currently rank 13th for chance creation.
  • When facing teams in the top half of the table, Torino have won NONE of their last 10 with 3 draws and 7 losses. 15 scored and 28 conceded. No other non-promoted team have a worse record.
  • If we filter this to just home games against top-half teams it's still pretty grim (W0 D4 L6, scored 8 conceded 23)
  • Verona are the 9th best team in the league at creating chances from open play, so I have no doubt they can trouble this Torino backline, against similarly ranked chance creators (Bologna and Udinese) we saw Torino struggle a lot

Verona

  • Verona sit 8th currently and rank 8th for expected goal difference, so they deserve to be sitting where they are
  • At the weekend they took on Spezia and ran out comfortable winners.
  • Since drawing with Juventus back in October, Verona seems to have gone from strength to strength with just three losses, two of which were undeserved. The loss to Sassuolo was harsh (xG 1.39-0.51) as was the loss to Sampdoria (xG 1.49-0.78) Two spectacular efforts in those two games were the difference (Boga for Sassuolo and Ekdal for Samp)
  • Verona currently rank 2nd for PPDA (a measure of pressing success) this season while Torino rank 3rd worst for press resistance (OPPDA) so I'm expecting them to create a good few chances from turnovers and quick counter-attacks.
  • Verona will have Nikola Kalinić leading the line, although he hasn't scored this season Verona do look a lot more capable with him on the pitch. With Barak, Zaccagni and Veloso also expected to start too I don't expect creativity to be a problem for the visitors.

Final word: Torino are unbeaten in three games now, but I still have my concerns, they give away too many chances and look mentally weak, especially in the 2nd half of games.