Lazio

Lazio’s form has fallen off a cliff since the restart and there’s little reason to expect a big turn around considering the tired legs and lack of motivation with the title slowly slipping out of reach

  • In two of their last 3 outings, Lazio have faced a bottom 4 defence (Lecce and Torino) and created very little in relation to how they’ve been performing earlier in the season. From those two matches, they average just 1.49xG
  • This game will be played in 33°C temperatures which will kill the pace a bit.
  • On top of the heat, these players have been run ragged over the last few weeks and with Lazio’s lack of squad depth, it’s really showing on the field.
  • The Under 3.5 goal line has landed in 14 of Lazio’s last 20 Serie A matches
  • When Lazio met Sassuolo earlier in the season they got off 0.94xG and didn’t create a single good goal scoring chance (despite winning 2-1) Subsequently Sassuolo converted their only chance of the game in that match too, a tap in from a defensive error.
  • Team news: Patric is suspended for biting Giulio Donati in their last match but Felipe will return to the back three and he's a stronger option. Reports seem to indicate Milinkovic-Savic will be dropped to the bench too. Lazio average 2.22 goals per match with him on the pitch so he'll be missed.

Sassuolo

  • Sassuolo have been scoring for fun since the restart, 16 goals in 6 games to be exact but does the xG match up? Not quite, the Neroverdi have created chances adding up to 9.53xG so we can expect a regression.
  • Overall, Sassuolo are over performing the xG by the 2nd biggest margin in Serie A
  • We should also note that Lazio despite their failings in recent games remain the 4th best defence in the league.
  • How have Sassuolo performed against the Top 6 defences in the league? (Juve, Inter, Lazio, Atalanta, Verona, and Milan)
  • Vs Milan 0.85xG and no goals
  • Vs Juve 2 goals but only 0.7xG
  • Vs Lazio 1 goal and 1.38xG (most of which came from a tap in on the goal line)
  • Vs Atalanta 2.95 xG over two matches, I’ll give them credit for the 2nd match but not the 1st
  • Vs Verona, they scored 4 goals in their two meetings this season but again only averaging 1.04xG per match.
  • One trend is clear here, they tend not to create much against the tighter defences in the league.
Under 3.5 Total Goals at 1.87 with Pinnacle - 2 units