Verona +1 Asian Handicap at 1.82 with Bet Victor - 2 unit
- Lazio are coming off a difficult mid-week game that saw them qualify for the KO rounds of the Champions League, that effort plus the inevitable team celebrations means I'm more than happy to fade them in this spot
- Following European mid-week games, Lazio have been wildly inconsistent. Just last week Spezia should have beaten them, the week prior Udinese beat them with relative ease. A few weeks ago we had the famous 4-3 win over Torino but that performance was again, very worrying.
- Lazio players such as Acerbi are in need of rest, this Lazio squad has no depth so don't be surprised to see Inzaghi rotate a bit. Neither Acerbi nor Immobile trained yesterday and there are rumours they could be rested here
- Of all the teams in the top half of the table, only Sassuolo have a worse defensive record than Lazio.
- When facing teams in the Top half of the table, Lazio have only won 2 of their last 10 while conceding 2 goals per game (W2 D2 L6)
- xG difference per 90 is often a better indicator of strength than league position. So far this season we can see that Lazio rank 10th in the league for this with a negative xGD p90, Verona's value is almost identical to Lazio's
- I was very low on Verona at the start of the season after the big turnover of players but Ivan Jurić has proved me wrong, his side are now going from strength to strength and I believe his side can take advantage of Lazio's position
- Verona are coming off a string of positive performances, they drew 1-1 with Juventus, beat Benevento 3-1, drew 2-2 with Milan, lost to Sassuolo but won the xG, beat Atalanta, and drew with Cagliari (a game they dominated)
- Overall Verona have lost just twice this season and neither loss was by more than one goal, they also won the xG count in both of those losses
- Verona's team news is fairly positive too, as of today only Kalinić is definitely out, Kalinić has only had 4 starts (0 goals) so not a big loss
- Only 4 of Verona's last 20 matches in Serie A have been losses by more than 2 goals
- When taking on top half teams, Verona are unbeaten in 6 of their last 10 with 13 scored and 19 conceded
Final word: I'm still of the opinion that this Lazio squad is not strong enough to compete on both fronts, expect Verona to keep this competitive.